4.30.2008

Possible Record Breaking Season

The 1941 St. Louis Browns set a record of 1334 men left on base (LOB). That’s 8.50 guys stranded per game.

This year, the Cardinals, Rangers and Cubs are challenging that record.

The Cardinals are leading baseball with men LOB with 242 in 28 games (prior to today’s game, which they left another 7 men on). This is an average of 8.64 runners per game and they are on pace for 1400 for the season. It’s really an astounding number for a team with a winning record, let alone in contention.

Texas is second with 236 in 27 games, 8.74 per game for a last place team. They are actually on pace for 1415, which is more than the Cardinals. They way the Rangers are playing, they need to score as many guys as the can.

Lastly, the Cubs have stranded 228 men in 26 games. This has them averaging 8.77 per game and totaling 1420 men stranded for the season.

Just for comparison, there have been 5918 men stranded total this year in 806 games; that’s an average of 7.34 per game. The average team will strand 1189.47 men for the season.

I’m leaving the Rangers behind so I can focus on the other 2; they are both fighting for the NL Central. The division could come down to these 2 teams, so every run will count. I’m also going to include the Brewers since it’s predicted to be a 3 horse race.

(The Brewers for the record have stranded 188 runners in 26 games, for 7.23 per game average. They are on pace for 1171 stranded for the season.)

Stranded base runners will be important in a tight division race – if the Cubs and Cards drop a lot of 1-run games, especially division games, it could cost them the post-season.

Here are the records for the 3 teams in 1-run games:
Cubs 4-1
Cardinals 6-4
Brewers 5-4

Here are the records in 2-run games:
Cubs 4-4
Cardinals 2-2
Brewers 4-2

If you were to assume that the Cubs dropped their number of stranded runners down by 1, the outcome of 1-run games barely changes since they only have lost one. The Cardinals on the other hand, could have tied up 4 additional games. Even if they split those games, that’s 2 additional wins. The Cardinals would then be 2 games up on the Cubs rather than tied for first.

Lower both by 2 runners per game, the Cubs have 1 additional win for sure, with 4 more potential wins; the Cardinals pick up 4 additional wins and 2 potential wins.

I really don’t think that either club will continue to strand men at this rate; I do think that every run counts and if they continue to leave men on base, the Brewers will pass both teams in the standings.

Rumors

Rumors from MLB Trade Rumors:

- They look at Mark Ellis in their Free Agent Stock Watch.
- The Padres are still looking for the long term answer in center. Felix Pie, Jeremy Reed, Tony Gwynn Jr are mentioned.
- The Rays will wait to see about expanding payroll this year if they are still in contention in a few months.
- The Mets are looking at recently DFA catcher Chad Moeller.
- The Rockies may aqcuire Jorge de la Rosa from the Royals to complete an earlier trade.
- Jason Botts was DFA and wants out of Texas.
- Bryan Corey and Greg Aquino were DFA by the Red Sox and Orioles, respectively.
- Matt Morris has officially retired since he was released from Pittsburgh.
- Bonds in Toronto?
- More info on Wayne Krivsky's firing are mentioned.
- Max Scherzer could be used in the D'backs bullpen or Chad Tracy could be traded for a reliever.
- There is still strong interest for Rays pitcher Edwin Jackson.

4.29.2008

Rumors

Rumors from MLB Trade Rumors:

- Link to the next 7 GMs that could be fired.
- Jose Valverde denies that he made a rediculous salary demand to the D'backs.
- Jorge Posada's should isn't as bad as first thought.
- Pirates trade value increases for Bay, Nady, and Grabow.
- Paul Konerko is now a 10 and 5 player (10 years in the league, 5 years with the same team; this grants him a no trade clause).
- Ryan Freel is unhappy about his playing time.
- Bonus demands of 2 of the top ametuer talents are revealed.
- Dusty Baker thinks Bonds doesn't miss baseball after conversation with the slugger.
- Zito's salary won't be eaten. He's officially in the bullpen.
- Dave Bush cleared waivers.

2 Sluggers on the Way out in New York?

Both first basemen in New York could be on their way out.

The Yankees are having discussions about releasing struggling first baseman/DH Jason Giambi. Many in the organization are worried he can’t hit power pitching any more and that his current decline will only get worse.

He’s hitting .167 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs.

Factor in the emergence of Melky Cabrera in the crowded outfield and Shelley Duncan at first, and Giambi becomes expendable. Also, Jorge Posada had been seeing time at DH before he went on the DL. There was also word that the Yanks had interest in Frank Thomas while he was on the market; this was later shot down by Hank Steinbrenner.

The Yankees would still be on the hook for almost $23 million owed to Giambi this season; this is the last year of his contract.

Across the city, the same discussion is being had about Carlos Delgado. Delgado hasn’t been the same player since he came to the Mets. His average, power numbers, and RBIs have all dropped since the move up the coast.

He’s hitting .205 with 3 homers and 12 RBIs this season.

The Mets apparently have interest in Scott Hatteberg or Xaiver Nady if Delgado is traded. The Mets could still acquire Nady even if Delgado stays with the team.

The Mets owe Delgado $16 million this year; he also is in the last year of his contract.

2 Sluggers on the Way out in New York?

Both first basemen in New York could be on their way out.

The Yankees are having discussions about releasing struggling first baseman/DH Jason Giambi. Many in the organization are worried he can’t hit power pitching any more and that his current decline will only get worse.

He’s hitting .167 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs.

Factor in the emergence of Melky Cabrera in the crowded outfield and Shelley Duncan at first, and Giambi becomes expendable. Also, Jorge Posada had been seeing time at DH before he went on the DL. There was also word that the Yanks had interest in Frank Thomas while he was on the market; this was later shot down by Hank Steinbrenner.

The Yankees would still be on the hook for almost $23 million owed to Giambi this season; this is the last year of his contract.

Across the city, the same discussion is being had about Carlos Delgado. Delgado hasn’t been the same player since he came to the Mets. His average, power numbers, and RBIs have all dropped since the move up the coast.

He’s hitting .205 with 3 homers and 12 RBIs this season.

The Mets apparently have interest in Scott Hatteberg or Xaiver Nady if Delgado is traded. The Mets could still acquire Nady even if Delgado stays with the team.

The Mets owe Delgado $16 million this year; he also is in the last year of his contract.

Rankings 4/29/2008

Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.

It's still early in the season, but something are starting to correct themselves. All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday.

4.28.2008

Rumors

Rumors from MLB Trade Rumors:

- There could be a potential fire sale with the Padres; potential moved players are listed.
- The Phillies are still looking for an additional left in the bullpen.
- Scott Hatteberg hopes the Reds will trade him since he's not playing much.
- Pirates release Matt Morris.

Interview: Jordan Brown

Originally published 03/31/2008 at Tailgate Crashers:

I've recently had a chance to ask Cleveland Indians prospect Jordan Brown a few questions. Brown, a 4th round selection of the Indians in 2005, has blown through the organization. He's starting the season with the Triple A Buffalo Bison as their first baseman and occasional left fielder.

Tailgate Crashers: What players did you idolize growing up?
Jordan Brown: Barry Bonds, Nolan Ryan, Ken Griffey, and Mark McGwire.

TC: You mentioned Bonds and McGwire. Has the steroids "issue" changed your opinion of them?
JB: First of all, there hasn't been any solid proof that these guys are steroid monkeys. It's all just hearsay. It's tough to remain as big a fan as I did when I was younger, but I still respect their abilities. Those guys were unbelievable hitters and I will always admire the way they hit consistently.

TC: Was being a baseball player always your plan?
JB: It's been a dream of mine since I was a little kid. There isn't anything else I'd rather be doing.

Update

As you can see, I've been somewhat regular with the posts. I've moved some of my weekly features over (Coming Soon to a Ball Park Near You, for one); I'm not posting the old transaction logs or rankings - go here to see them.

I'm planning on an interview or 2 (and moving my one with Jordan Brown of the Indians system here), a few projects I'm working on, and some other special treats in the near future.

If you want to go back and see anything, I've got them tagged by team and by where they are from (unless it was something of my own).

Coming Soon to a Ballpark Near You: Brian Barton

Originally published 3/28/2008 at Tailgate Crashers:

Coming Soon to a Ballpark Near You is a new look at some of the up and comers of Major League Baseball. My goal is to introduce a new player each week. Some will be in the majors, and some will be up soon. I have a list of players that will be making their debuts this year that I'm doing in alphabetical order. If anyone knows of someone they want to have profiled, feel free to e-mail me or post it in the forums. I'll try to get as many of them as I can.

First, we have Rule V pickup...

Name: Brian Barton
Team: St. Louis Cardinals
DOB: 04/25/1982
Drafted: Not draft – signed by the Cleveland Indians
Acquired: Rule V Draft, Dec 2007
Awards: 2006 Carolina League All Star (Mid-season and post-season), 2006 Hi-A All Star (Baseball America), 2007 Baseball America’s Top 100 (#86), 2007 Eastern League All Star (Mid-season).

Coming Soon to a Ballpark Near You: Daric Barton

Originally published 04/04/2008 at Tailgate Crashers:

Name: Daric Barton
Team: Oakland Athletics
DOB: August 16, 1985
Drafted: 1st Rd (28th overall), 2003
Acquired: Traded from St. Louis with Dan Haren and Kiko Calero to Oakland for Mark Mulder.
Awards: 2004 Midwest League Post-season All Star, 2005 Future Games selection, 2007 Pacific Coast League Mid-season All Star.

For Cardinals Fans attending Autograph Nights This Year

I e-mailed the Cardinals and asked which former players will be attending Autograph Nights this year. Here is what I received back:

Here's a list of some of the former players who'll be signing, although we don't yet know on what night.

John Costello
Ken Dayley
Danny Cox
Ken Reitz
Ted Savage


They have 5 autograph nights and 2 former players attend each one. I don't think any of the guys last year did more than one night, so expect 5 more guys to be announced. Last year they had Dayley, Reitz, Scott Cooper, Kerry Robinson, and Glenn Brummer.

I don't know if I'll be attending any Autograph nights, but if I do I'll need stuff for Ken Reitz and Ted Savage. E-mail me if interested in possibly setting up a 50/50 (I'll only take 2-4 of each guy).

Rumors

The weekend rumors from MLB Trade Rumors:

- The Mariners were 1 of 4 teams to contact Frank Thomas's agent.
- Greg Zaun or Rod Barajas could be dealt at the deadline by the Blue Jays since Robinson Diaz is hitting well in the minors.
- Mike Myers request and received his release from the Dodgers; he was in Triple A Las Vegas.
- Hideo Nomo has been placed on release waivers by the Royals.
- Bartolo Colon is near a return from the DL in Triple A Pawtucket; he can opt out of his contract May 1.
- The Mets are talking of releasing slumping 1B Carlos Delgado.
- Scott Boras is already talking up Manny Ramirez.
- Jonathan Papelbon says he's happy going year to year on his contract; he wants the big payday rather than a secure contract.
- 2 teams have inquired with Boston about Brandon Moss.
- Dan Kolb was released by Boston; he was in Pawtucket as well.
- The Indians are optomistic about resigning CC Sabathia and could talk extension with Ryan Garko.
- Matt Morris was released by the Pirates (they go into detail about what could happen before it did).
- The White Sox are still listening to offers for Joe Crede
- Jake Peavy is advocating for the Padres to sign Kenny Lofton.
- Kevin Millwood's contract could prevent him from being traded.
- What will Walt Jocketty and the Reds (still doesn't feel right typing that) try to do with Ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn?
- The Rockies DFA Jayson Nix.
- The Rangers may trade Gerald Laird since they called up Salty.
- Brent Lillibridge has received a call up by the Braves; Zach Schreiber has been DFA.
- The Pirates are holding off for now, but Xavier Nady could be one of the first guys to go.
- Chad Tracy is almost back to the D'Backs, but they don't have a place for him.

4.27.2008

Astros Vs Cardinals

Only did by the Astros dugout:
Mike Shannon 1/1 ROMLB - he was waiting for Cecil Cooper to get an interview
Geoff Geary 1/1
Wesley Wright 1/1
Roy Oswalt 1/1, 1/1

Total 5
Year 183

4.25.2008

Rumors

Rumors from MLB Trade Rumors.

- Kenji Johjima signed a 3 year extension today. What happens to Jeff Clement?

- Gary Sheffield says he's contemplating retirement; he just got this 3rd cortisone shot and will not have another surgery.

- Coco Crisp is probably staying for the time being.

- Ray King would rather be traded than report to Triple A.

- Mike Sweeney may be pushed out of Oakland by Frank Thomas.

- People in the Astros front office would be open to trading Roy Oswalt, but their owner would never go for it. He said he'd only waive his no-trade clause for the Red Sox, Cardinals, or Braves.

- Those same people question whether the Astos would have given up so much if they knew Miguel Tejada's real age.

- The Phillies will offer Pat Burrell a contract extension.

Transaction Log: 4/18 - 4/24

Transaction Log: 4/18 - 4/24

Here are the Major League transactions for the last 7 days.

Coming Soon to a Ballpark Near You: Jacoby Ellsbury

Originally published at Tailgate Crashers on 4/24/2008:

Name: Jacoby Ellsbury
Team: Boston Red Sox
DOB: September 11, 1983
Drafted: 23rd Round (Tampa Bay), 2002 – did not sign; 1st Round (23 overall, Boston), 2005.
Acquired: Draft
Awards: 2006 Carolina League All Star; 2006 Arizona Fall League All Star; 2007 Futures Game; 2007 AL Rookie of the Month – September.

Giants vs Cardinals this past Sunday

I went to the hotel for the Giants Sunday:
Matt Cain 1/3
Tim Lincecum 5/5
Dan Ortmeier 2/3 (he may not be doing dups - he skipped the gold after signing the 02 BDP)
Merkin Valdez 3/3
Brian Wilson 2/2 custom cards
Barry Zito 2/9 - he signed 2 for everyone

Didn't have anything for a few guys, but most took the cart to the stadium.

Total: 15
Year: 178

4.24.2008

Thomas signs with Oakland

Frank Thomas has agreed to a deal with the Oakland Athletics. They will pay him the league minimum, since Toronto is paying him $8 million.

He was released last week after a slow start and conflicts with management.

The A's moved Travis Buck to the 15-day DL to make way for Thomas.

Rumors

MLB Rumors courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.

- The Rangers are expecting to be sellers before the trade deadline comes up in July. Names mentioned include Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Hank Blalock, Frank Catalanotto, Milton Bradley, Gerald Laird, Marlon Byrd, Jamey Wright, and Joaquin Benoit.

- The Royals have shot down the idea of signing Frank Thomas or Barry Bonds.

- The Rays could take C Buster Posey with the first pick of the draft.

- Brandon Inge is upset with the Cabrera/Guillen position switch.

- Bonds has not received any contract offers. They expect someone to sign him at some point.

- They note a few transactions: Dan Johnson DFA by Rays - he didn't even play in a game; Rajai Davis was claimed by the A's; Josh Banks was claimed by the Padres.

Coming Soon to a Ballpark Near You: Jay Bruce

Originally published 4/10/2008 at Tailgate Crashers (click link for full stats graphic):

Name: Jay Bruce
Team: Cincinnati Reds
DOB: April 3, 1987
Drafted: 1st Round (12th overall), 2005
Acquired: Draft
Awards: 2007 Futures Game selection, 2007 FSL Mid Season All Star, 2007 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year.

Coming Soon to a Ballpark Near You: Johnny Cueto

Originally published 4/17/2008 at Tailgate Crashers (go there for full stat graphic):

Name: Johnny Cueto
Team: Cincinnati Reds
DOB: February 15, 1986
Drafted: Not Drafted.
Acquired: Signed as a free agent 03/2004.
Awards: None.

The Collector’s Corner: TTM Autographs

Originally published 4/17/2008 at Tailgate Crashers:

After a large void since the previous (and only) Collector’s Corner, I’m back. I’ll try to do this monthly from here on out.

Today I’m going to go over the basics of getting autographs through the mail (or TTM).

The easiest was to obtain autographs from sports stars is mailing cards to the players. While not all players sign, a good percentage do. The easiest thing to send is cards, but players will also sign bigger items like baseballs or 8x10s. Also, some sports are better known for signing: baseball is probably the easiest to get TTM while basketball is the hardest.

4.23.2008

Rumors

Courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors:
- The Pirates aren't ready to cut ties with Matt Morris yet, but it could be coming down the line.
- Pat Burrell only wanted to go to the Yankees or Red Sox when the Phillies were offering him in the past. He's a free agent at the end of the season.
- The Dodgers have mild interest in Juan Castro.
- Peter Angelos might kill any Brian Roberts trade.
- The Red Sox would like to get Sean Gallagher and a prospect for Coco Crisp. They hope the Cubs are interested.
- Tommy Lasorda was pushing the Dodgers to sign Mike Piazza as a back up catcher.
- No interest anywhere for David Wells still.
- The A's are discussing Frank Thomas, while the Yankees aren't.

A look at Krivsky's time in Cincinnati

Wayne Krivsky Report Card

Trades:
3-20-06: Acquired Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena.
3-21-06: Acquired David Ross for Bobby Basham.
4-7-06: Acquired Brandon Phillips for Jeff Stevens.
5-26-06: Traded Cody Ross to Marlins for a player to be named later.
7-6-06: Acquired Eddie Guardado for Travis Chick.
7-13-06: Acquired Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, and Daryl Thompson for Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner.
7-31-06: Acquired Rheal Cormier for Justin Germano.
7-31-06: Acquired Kyle Lohse for Zach Ward.
8-7-06: Acquired Ryan Franklin for a player to be named later.
8-16-06: Acquired Scott Schoeneweis for a player to be named later.
11-20-06: Traded Jason LaRue to the Royals for a player to be named later.
12-7-06: Acquired Josh Hamilton for cash.
1-2-07: Traded Brendan Harris to Rays for cash.
1-10-07: Acquired Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger.
4-27-07: Traded Chris Denorfia to A's for Marcus McBeth and another player.
12-21-07: Acquired Edinson Volquez and Danny Herrera for Josh Hamilton.
Grade: B

Acquiring Arroyo, Phillips and Hamilton were great moves. Arroyo was great that first season and has been solid since then. Wily Mo can't stay healthy and hasn't proven that he should play everyday. Phillips was gotten essentially for free and started to live up to his potential. Hamilton was a risky move that paid off and netted Volquez.

He loses points for trading away Kearns and Lopez for almost nothing. The only player of worth from that deal was traded for nothing later on.

Free Agents:
2-12-06: Scott Hatteberg signed to a one-year, $750K deal.
2-13-06: Adam Dunn signed to two-year, $18.5MM extension.
7-26-06: Signed Hatteberg to a one-year, $1.65MM extension.
8-28-06: Signed Javier Valentin to a one-year, $1.325MM extension.
9-25-06: Signed Juan Castro to a two-year, $2MM extension.
11-20-06: Signed Alex Gonzalez to a three-year, $14MM contract.
11-20-06: Signed Mike Stanton to a two-year, $5.5MM contract.
12-12-06: Signed David Weathers to a two-year, $5MM contract.
2-6-07: Signed Aaron Harang to a four-year, $36.5MM extension.
2-8-07: Signed Bronson Arroyo to a two-year, $25MM extension.
4-16-07: Signed Ryan Freel to a two-year, $7MM extension.
10-31-07: Exercised '08 options on Hatteberg, Dunn, and Valentin.
11-28-07: Signed Francisco Cordero to a four-year, $46MM contract.
1-23-08: Signed Jeremy Affeldt to a one-year, $3MM contract.
2-15-08: Signed Brandon Phillips to a four-year, $27MM extension.
2-21-08: Signed Josh Fogg to a one-year, $1MM contract.
3-3-08: Signed Corey Patterson to a one-year, $3MM contract.
Grade: D-

Good signing/extensions were limited: Dunn's extension was below market value. The first Hatteberg contract was good for the team, and Corey Patterson is a low risk move. Freel's extension wasn't horrible, especially for someone who can play anywhere. Cordero isn't a bad signing either, but they have to get the save opportunities for him.

Bad or uninspired signings were what he'll be remembered for. Juan Castro and Mike Staton aren't playing for them any more, but still getting paid. He overpaid for Harang's extention based on what similar, pre-free agency pitchers have gotten. Hatteberg and Valentin were un-neccesary options.

Drafts:
June '06: Selected Drew Stubbs eighth overall in draft.
June '07: Selected Devin Mesoraco 15th overall in draft.
Grade: C

Some say they went too early for Stubbs, but the jury is still out. We can come back to this in 2-3 years.

Rule V:
12-7-06: Selected Jared Burton in Rule 5 draft.
Grade: C

Burton is all to go on; he's a generic reliever, but he stuck with the club last year. That has to count for something.

Final Grade: C

He really didn't do a lot to help the team, but he also didn't hurt it horribly either. A change really was needed for the team to be competitive.

He'll be remembered for the trade with the Nationals.

I expect him to get a job again as an assistant GM somewhere soon.

Krivsky out, Jocketty in as Reds GM

The Reds have fired GM Wayne Krivsky and have moved Walt Jocketty to the position.

Krivsky was hired in Feb. of 2006 to a 3 year contract. He had been an assistant GM for the Twins previously.

Jocketty was the GM of the Cardinals from 1995 to 2007. He brought them a World Series win and another appearance. He was fired after the past season due to conflicts in the front office.

Jocketty was an adviser to the Reds and their CEO before Krisky's firing. Many saw the move coming, but not this quickly.

Where Will Frank Thomas Go?

Frank Thomas was released from the Blue Jays this past week; he was struggling and had problems with management. He’s considered one of the top hitters in the last 15 years; sure he’s on the decline, but he can still hit.

Which teams would benefit from the Big Hurt?

Official Team Rankings

Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.

It's still early in the season, but somethings are starting to correct themselves. All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday.