Word out of Oakland is GM Billy Beane may step down as early as the end of the season. Assistant GM David Forst has been turning down interview requests with other teams; many are saying he'll be Beane successor.
Beane wants to try his hand at building soccer teams; A's owner Lewis Wolff owns the San Jose Earthquakes of the MLS.
6.30.2008
6.27.2008
Mound Talks Top 50 Prospects of June
Mound Talk has their Top 50 Prospects for June up:
Rank Player Pos Team
1 Jay Bruce CF CIN
2 Colby Rasmus CF STL
3 Clayton Kershaw SP LAD
4 Joba Chamberlain SP NYY
5 Matt LaPorta LF MIL
6 Matt Wieters C BAL
7 David Price SP TBR
8 Andrew McCutchen CF PIT
9 Andy LaRoche 3B LAD
10 Travis Snider OF/DH TOR
11 Jeff Clement C SEA
12 Cameron Maybin CF FLA
13 Brandon Wood 3B ANA
14 Rick Porcello SP DET
15 Jacob McGee SP TBR
16 Mat Gamel 3B MIL
17 Chris Marrero 1B WAS
18 Carlos Gonzalez OF OAK
19 Homer Bailey SP CIN
20 Jarrod Parker SP ARI
21 Justin Masterson SP BOS
22 Max Scherzer SP ARI
23 Jason Heyward OF ATL
24 Nick Adenhart SP ANA
25 Mike Moustakas SS KCR
26 Craig Italiano SP OAK
27 Trevor Cahill SP OAK
28 Madison Bumgarner SP SFG
29 Ross Detwiler SP WAS
30 Michael Bowden SP BOS
31 Wade Davis SP TBR
32 Lars Anderson 1B BOS
33 Will Inman SP SDP
34 Jordan Shafer CF ATL
35 Desmond Jennings CF TBR
36 Jed Lowrie SS BOS
37 Chris Davis 1B TEX
38 Josh Vitters 3B CHC
39 Fernando Martinez OF NYM
40 Brett Anderson SP OAK
41 Michael Burgess OF WAS
42 Max Ramirez C TEX
43 Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
44 Jaime Garcia SP STL
45 Gio Gonzalez SP OAK
46 Phillipe Aumont SP SEA
47 Angel Villalona 3B SFG
48 Daniel Bard RP BOS
49 Reid Brignac SS TBR
50 Neftali Feliz SP TEX
Rank Player Pos Team
1 Jay Bruce CF CIN
2 Colby Rasmus CF STL
3 Clayton Kershaw SP LAD
4 Joba Chamberlain SP NYY
5 Matt LaPorta LF MIL
6 Matt Wieters C BAL
7 David Price SP TBR
8 Andrew McCutchen CF PIT
9 Andy LaRoche 3B LAD
10 Travis Snider OF/DH TOR
11 Jeff Clement C SEA
12 Cameron Maybin CF FLA
13 Brandon Wood 3B ANA
14 Rick Porcello SP DET
15 Jacob McGee SP TBR
16 Mat Gamel 3B MIL
17 Chris Marrero 1B WAS
18 Carlos Gonzalez OF OAK
19 Homer Bailey SP CIN
20 Jarrod Parker SP ARI
21 Justin Masterson SP BOS
22 Max Scherzer SP ARI
23 Jason Heyward OF ATL
24 Nick Adenhart SP ANA
25 Mike Moustakas SS KCR
26 Craig Italiano SP OAK
27 Trevor Cahill SP OAK
28 Madison Bumgarner SP SFG
29 Ross Detwiler SP WAS
30 Michael Bowden SP BOS
31 Wade Davis SP TBR
32 Lars Anderson 1B BOS
33 Will Inman SP SDP
34 Jordan Shafer CF ATL
35 Desmond Jennings CF TBR
36 Jed Lowrie SS BOS
37 Chris Davis 1B TEX
38 Josh Vitters 3B CHC
39 Fernando Martinez OF NYM
40 Brett Anderson SP OAK
41 Michael Burgess OF WAS
42 Max Ramirez C TEX
43 Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
44 Jaime Garcia SP STL
45 Gio Gonzalez SP OAK
46 Phillipe Aumont SP SEA
47 Angel Villalona 3B SFG
48 Daniel Bard RP BOS
49 Reid Brignac SS TBR
50 Neftali Feliz SP TEX
Fantasy GM: The San Diego Padres
Fantasy GM: San Diego Padres
With the Padres struggling, I'd go in complete selling mode. There are plenty of veterans on this team that could get a few prospects.
First move would be to get some names floating around. Everyone knows that Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf will be available. Why not put Khalil Greene's name out there? Brian Giles would be welcome on a contender.
With the Padres struggling, I'd go in complete selling mode. There are plenty of veterans on this team that could get a few prospects.
First move would be to get some names floating around. Everyone knows that Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf will be available. Why not put Khalil Greene's name out there? Brian Giles would be welcome on a contender.
The Collector's Corner: TTM Project Update
TTM Project Update.
Well, the cards have been out for a little over a month now and I'm sitting at 44% success rating.
Here who I've received, received/sent, and how long it took:
Hank Aaron, 1/1, 7 days
John Danks, 1/2, 14 days
Livan Hernandez, 2/3, 14 days
Chris Perez, 3/3, 4 days
Ryne Sandberg, 1/1, 24 days
Max Scherzer, 1/1, 11 days
Jess Todd, 1/1, 8 days
Matt Wieters, 1/1, 14 days
I'm happy with what I've gotten back, but hopefully I'll have a few more trickle in.
One reason for a possible delay for some of the cards is the team schedule. If a player was on a long road stand, A) he can't get his mail and B) what mail he does get backs up. It could take a player longer to go through the mail when he gets to his locker for the first time in a week or 2.
A Lesson from This
There has been some recent controversy in the autograph world about the Aaron autos. Many believe they are "ghost signed," where someone else signs the cards.
While I think the autograph is really Aarons, you do have to wonder why he'd be signing all of the sudden. He's never been great about signing through the mail and all of the sudden he signs everything.
My reasoning for why I believe the autograph is real is simple. First, it matches an autograph I've gotten from him in the past (and it matches one that my brother in law bought). Also, everything he's been signing has been sent through the Braves - there is no reason to assume the Braves would have a hand in giving out fake autographs.
That's just my opinion though.
Many other players have been rumored to use ghost signers, including David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jim Thome.
Well, the cards have been out for a little over a month now and I'm sitting at 44% success rating.
Here who I've received, received/sent, and how long it took:
Hank Aaron, 1/1, 7 days
John Danks, 1/2, 14 days
Livan Hernandez, 2/3, 14 days
Chris Perez, 3/3, 4 days
Ryne Sandberg, 1/1, 24 days
Max Scherzer, 1/1, 11 days
Jess Todd, 1/1, 8 days
Matt Wieters, 1/1, 14 days
I'm happy with what I've gotten back, but hopefully I'll have a few more trickle in.
One reason for a possible delay for some of the cards is the team schedule. If a player was on a long road stand, A) he can't get his mail and B) what mail he does get backs up. It could take a player longer to go through the mail when he gets to his locker for the first time in a week or 2.
A Lesson from This
There has been some recent controversy in the autograph world about the Aaron autos. Many believe they are "ghost signed," where someone else signs the cards.
While I think the autograph is really Aarons, you do have to wonder why he'd be signing all of the sudden. He's never been great about signing through the mail and all of the sudden he signs everything.
My reasoning for why I believe the autograph is real is simple. First, it matches an autograph I've gotten from him in the past (and it matches one that my brother in law bought). Also, everything he's been signing has been sent through the Braves - there is no reason to assume the Braves would have a hand in giving out fake autographs.
That's just my opinion though.
Many other players have been rumored to use ghost signers, including David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jim Thome.
Daily Update: 06/27/2008
The CC Sabathia spectulation is starting to heat up. The Indians are going to make one last push to extend their ace. If that fails, look for half the teams in baseball to inquire.
The Cubs and Angels are expected to be the leading suitors. The Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox have also had their names associated with Sabathia.
The 2 sleeper teams are the Cardinals and Rays. Both think they could contend with the rotations they have (or will have when starts come back from injuries), but have the pieces to make the deal.
I'd expect the Indians to walk away with about half of what the Twins got for Johan Santana - Santana had a full season to go before he was to be a free agent, while Sabathia only has half a season.
The Cubs and Angels are expected to be the leading suitors. The Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox have also had their names associated with Sabathia.
The 2 sleeper teams are the Cardinals and Rays. Both think they could contend with the rotations they have (or will have when starts come back from injuries), but have the pieces to make the deal.
I'd expect the Indians to walk away with about half of what the Twins got for Johan Santana - Santana had a full season to go before he was to be a free agent, while Sabathia only has half a season.
6.26.2008
Daily Update: 06/26/2008
As if things weren't bad enough in Houston, but Shawn Chacon made things worse.
Chacon was upset that he was being sent to the bullpen; he states the only reason he came to Houston was to start and he had better offers as a reliever he passed on. He requested a trade or to be released.
Suddenly yesterday, he was indefinitely suspended. The reason for the suspension was later explained - he attacked GM Ed Wade (something the people of Philadelphia have wanted to do for years). Reports state he threw Wade to the floor, while another states the pitcher choked his GM.
Chacon was upset that he was being sent to the bullpen; he states the only reason he came to Houston was to start and he had better offers as a reliever he passed on. He requested a trade or to be released.
Suddenly yesterday, he was indefinitely suspended. The reason for the suspension was later explained - he attacked GM Ed Wade (something the people of Philadelphia have wanted to do for years). Reports state he threw Wade to the floor, while another states the pitcher choked his GM.
6.25.2008
Autographs from my trip...
Friday - Mahoning Valley Scrappers vs Batavia Muckdogs
Travis Fryman 1/1, 1/6 (1 ROMLB, 1 card)
Robert Alcombrack 7/7
Ken Rowe 3/3
Batavia Team Ball (22):
Miguel Tapia, Chris Swauger, Ramon Delgado, Xavier Skruggs, Edwin Gomez, Josh Hester, Jonathan Edwards, Adam Reifer, Frederick Parejo, Colt Sedbrook, Arquimedes Neito, Jason Buursma, Jameson Maj, Scott McGregor, Zach Pitts, Jeff Albert, Mark Dejohn, Jose Garcia, Nick Vera, Rigoberto Lugo, Lance Lynn, Luis de la Cruz (missing 11 players and 1 coach).
As I started the team ball, Gomez signed first and signed the sweetspot. His teammates were harassing him and he felt bad. I told him not to worry about it. Later, as I was at the dugout getting more players, he started ushering players to me. He even tracked down Lance Lynn to sign my ball, as he was one of the guys I really wanted.
34 total
Saturday - Rochester Red Wings vs Indy Indians (Autograph night)
TJ Beam 1/3, 1/1, 1/1
Brian Bixler 1/1
Adam Boeve 1/1
Bryan Bullington 1/1, 1/1
Jesse Chavez 1/1
Jason Davis 5/5
Franklyn German 5/8, 3/3
Michel Hernandez 6/6
Trent Jewett 3/3
Matt Kata 1/9
Carlos Maldonado 2/2, 2/2
Evan Meeks 1/1 (ROMLB - my help got him on accident)
Hensley Meulens 2/2, 2/2, 3/5
Luis Ordaz 2/2
Steve Pearce 1/1
Romulo Sanchez 4/4
Ray Searage 2/2, 2/2
Ty Taubenheim 3/3
John Van Benschoten 1/8, 1/1, 1/1
Neil Walker 1/1, 2/2 (ROMLB, 2 cards)
Craig Wilson 1/9, 1/1, 1/1
Josh Wilson 4/4
Stu Cliburn 4/4
Garrett Jones 2/2
Darnell McDonald 5/8
Jason Pridie 2/2
Denard Span 1/1
83 total
Year 304
Travis Fryman 1/1, 1/6 (1 ROMLB, 1 card)
Robert Alcombrack 7/7
Ken Rowe 3/3
Batavia Team Ball (22):
Miguel Tapia, Chris Swauger, Ramon Delgado, Xavier Skruggs, Edwin Gomez, Josh Hester, Jonathan Edwards, Adam Reifer, Frederick Parejo, Colt Sedbrook, Arquimedes Neito, Jason Buursma, Jameson Maj, Scott McGregor, Zach Pitts, Jeff Albert, Mark Dejohn, Jose Garcia, Nick Vera, Rigoberto Lugo, Lance Lynn, Luis de la Cruz (missing 11 players and 1 coach).
As I started the team ball, Gomez signed first and signed the sweetspot. His teammates were harassing him and he felt bad. I told him not to worry about it. Later, as I was at the dugout getting more players, he started ushering players to me. He even tracked down Lance Lynn to sign my ball, as he was one of the guys I really wanted.
34 total
Saturday - Rochester Red Wings vs Indy Indians (Autograph night)
TJ Beam 1/3, 1/1, 1/1
Brian Bixler 1/1
Adam Boeve 1/1
Bryan Bullington 1/1, 1/1
Jesse Chavez 1/1
Jason Davis 5/5
Franklyn German 5/8, 3/3
Michel Hernandez 6/6
Trent Jewett 3/3
Matt Kata 1/9
Carlos Maldonado 2/2, 2/2
Evan Meeks 1/1 (ROMLB - my help got him on accident)
Hensley Meulens 2/2, 2/2, 3/5
Luis Ordaz 2/2
Steve Pearce 1/1
Romulo Sanchez 4/4
Ray Searage 2/2, 2/2
Ty Taubenheim 3/3
John Van Benschoten 1/8, 1/1, 1/1
Neil Walker 1/1, 2/2 (ROMLB, 2 cards)
Craig Wilson 1/9, 1/1, 1/1
Josh Wilson 4/4
Stu Cliburn 4/4
Garrett Jones 2/2
Darnell McDonald 5/8
Jason Pridie 2/2
Denard Span 1/1
83 total
Year 304
6.24.2008
Baseball Rankings: 06/24/2008
I've been out of town for the last week, so everything has been quiet around here. I'm back, so get ready.
Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
6.16.2008
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: 06/15/2008
Father's Day at the Ballpark:
So Taguchi 2/6
Jamie Moyer 1/1
Ryan Howard 0/1
Missed Hamels and Utley waiting for Howard.
So Taguchi 2/6
Jamie Moyer 1/1
Ryan Howard 0/1
Missed Hamels and Utley waiting for Howard.
Daily Update: 06/16/2008
A few quick points:
- The White Sox didn't release Esteban Loaiza, as originally reported. They stashed him on the DL; my guess is he'll get a minor league rehab and they'll see if he can still pitch effectively.
- The Rankings will be up later today; I'm going out of town tomorrow morning, so I wanted to do them before I left.
- The Updates are going away until next week. Things will get back on track next Tuesday.
- I'll have some stuff pop up while I'm gone.
- The White Sox didn't release Esteban Loaiza, as originally reported. They stashed him on the DL; my guess is he'll get a minor league rehab and they'll see if he can still pitch effectively.
- The Rankings will be up later today; I'm going out of town tomorrow morning, so I wanted to do them before I left.
- The Updates are going away until next week. Things will get back on track next Tuesday.
- I'll have some stuff pop up while I'm gone.
6.13.2008
Daily Update: 06/13/2008
Teams don't seem to learn do they.
Jeff Weaver couldn't get a deal this winter and signed with the Brewers after the season started to a minor league deal. He was released after 9 starts in Triple A.
Jacque Jones gets released by the Tigers, only to get picked up by the Marlins. After 44 at bats, he gets released again.
This morning, the White Sox are going to announce they have released Esteban Loaiza. Apparently, he didn't pitch/work out before he was signed by the Sox. He only saw 3 innings with the team.
Jeff Weaver couldn't get a deal this winter and signed with the Brewers after the season started to a minor league deal. He was released after 9 starts in Triple A.
Jacque Jones gets released by the Tigers, only to get picked up by the Marlins. After 44 at bats, he gets released again.
This morning, the White Sox are going to announce they have released Esteban Loaiza. Apparently, he didn't pitch/work out before he was signed by the Sox. He only saw 3 innings with the team.
6.12.2008
Daily Update: 06/12/2008
Rumors about Milton Bradley are starting up, since he's on a 1 year deal with the Rangers.
Bradley last night had another "incident" during the Rangers game against the Royals. The Royals commentators were talking about what a good story Josh Hamilton is; one went as far as saying that Bradley needs to hang out with him since he won't grow up. Bradley, DHing last night, heard the comments while waiting in the clubhouse while the Rangers were on the field.
There are conflicting reports, but one said that Bradley instantly went up 4 flights to the press box to confront the commentator; other reports are saying he went after the game. Rangers GM Jon Daniels had to intercept Bradley and escort him back to the clubhouse.
Bradley was visually shaken by the comments according to teammates.
Bradley last night had another "incident" during the Rangers game against the Royals. The Royals commentators were talking about what a good story Josh Hamilton is; one went as far as saying that Bradley needs to hang out with him since he won't grow up. Bradley, DHing last night, heard the comments while waiting in the clubhouse while the Rangers were on the field.
There are conflicting reports, but one said that Bradley instantly went up 4 flights to the press box to confront the commentator; other reports are saying he went after the game. Rangers GM Jon Daniels had to intercept Bradley and escort him back to the clubhouse.
Bradley was visually shaken by the comments according to teammates.
6.11.2008
Daily Update: 06/11/2008
Albert Pujols joined the Cardinal wounded last night. He went down with a strain hamstring and was helped off the field by teammates. He'll be DLed today and the Cardinals are calling up Chris Duncan.
Pujols joins Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Matt Clement, Mark Mulder, Jason Isringhausen, Brad Thompson, and Tyler Johnson.
It'll be interesting to see their total DL time at the end of the season.
Pujols joins Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Matt Clement, Mark Mulder, Jason Isringhausen, Brad Thompson, and Tyler Johnson.
It'll be interesting to see their total DL time at the end of the season.
6.10.2008
Power Rankings: 06/10/2008
Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
TTM Update
I sent out to Ryan Pope, a Yankee minor leaguer last week.
For the Project, I got 3 more successes:
Livan Hernandez, 2/3, c/o Twins
2 Weeks
John Danks, 1/2, c/o White Sox
2 Weeks
Matt Wieters, 1/1, c/o Frederick
2 Weeks
The Updated List:
Aaron, Hank - Braves - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/30/2008
Cardenas, Adrian - Clearwater - 05/23/2008 - 3
Danks, John - White Sox - 05/23/2008 - 1/2 - 06/06/2008
Detwiler, Ross - Potomac - 05/23/2008 - 1
Doolittle, Sean - Stockton - 05/23/2008 - 2
Hernandez, Livan - Twins - 05/23/2008 - 2/3 - 06/06/2008
Heyward, Jason - Rome - 05/23/2008 - 2
Jimenez, Ubaldo - Rockies - 05/23/2008 - 2
LaPorta, Matt - Huntsville - 05/23/2008 - 1
McCormick, Mark - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1
Pedroia, Dustin - Red Sox - 05/23/2008 - 1
Perez, Chris - Cardinals - 05/23/2008 - 3/3 - 05/27/2008
Sandberg, Ryan - Peoria - 05/23/2008 - 1
Scherzer, Max - Diamondbacks - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 06/03/2008
Smith, Joe - Mets - 05/23/2008 - 2
Tejada, Miguel - Astros - 05/23/2008 - 2
Todd, Jess - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/31/2008
Wieters, Matt - Frederick - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 06/06/2008
Received 7/18 for 39% return rate (or 32% of everything sent since 2 players each kept a card).
For the Project, I got 3 more successes:
Livan Hernandez, 2/3, c/o Twins
2 Weeks
John Danks, 1/2, c/o White Sox
2 Weeks
Matt Wieters, 1/1, c/o Frederick
2 Weeks
The Updated List:
Aaron, Hank - Braves - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/30/2008
Cardenas, Adrian - Clearwater - 05/23/2008 - 3
Danks, John - White Sox - 05/23/2008 - 1/2 - 06/06/2008
Detwiler, Ross - Potomac - 05/23/2008 - 1
Doolittle, Sean - Stockton - 05/23/2008 - 2
Hernandez, Livan - Twins - 05/23/2008 - 2/3 - 06/06/2008
Heyward, Jason - Rome - 05/23/2008 - 2
Jimenez, Ubaldo - Rockies - 05/23/2008 - 2
LaPorta, Matt - Huntsville - 05/23/2008 - 1
McCormick, Mark - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1
Pedroia, Dustin - Red Sox - 05/23/2008 - 1
Perez, Chris - Cardinals - 05/23/2008 - 3/3 - 05/27/2008
Sandberg, Ryan - Peoria - 05/23/2008 - 1
Scherzer, Max - Diamondbacks - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 06/03/2008
Smith, Joe - Mets - 05/23/2008 - 2
Tejada, Miguel - Astros - 05/23/2008 - 2
Todd, Jess - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/31/2008
Wieters, Matt - Frederick - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 06/06/2008
Received 7/18 for 39% return rate (or 32% of everything sent since 2 players each kept a card).
Daily Update: 06/10/2008
There are plenty of players in baseball where people ask "What If...?" The top player on the list would have to be Ken Griffey Jr, who hit his 600th home run last night. If he would have had a healthy career, he could have been going for 700 or even chasing Bonds.
While Junior is on the down side of his 30s, he still has some pop in his bat. If he can continue his career in a hitters park in the AL, he could get to 700.
I really don't know if the Reds will be able to move him. He's making a lot of money and would want an extension or his option picked up. Now that 600 is out of the way, they will probrably start checking interest in him.
A winning situation would be to go to Tampa. He'd be the DH and could still see some outfield time; they need a true DH and superstar to draw a crowd. They also have some spare pieces that could be moved for a good bat.
While Junior is on the down side of his 30s, he still has some pop in his bat. If he can continue his career in a hitters park in the AL, he could get to 700.
I really don't know if the Reds will be able to move him. He's making a lot of money and would want an extension or his option picked up. Now that 600 is out of the way, they will probrably start checking interest in him.
A winning situation would be to go to Tampa. He'd be the DH and could still see some outfield time; they need a true DH and superstar to draw a crowd. They also have some spare pieces that could be moved for a good bat.
6.06.2008
Inside the First Round
Well, 6 out of 30 isn't horrible for the first time I've done a mock draft. Overall, this was a screwy draft. Most of what was said before hand went completely out the window.
1. Rays
Drafted: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
Predicted: Buster Posey, C, Florida St
Last minute demands are apparently what knocked Posey down to the Giants. Beckham should have been the first pick, so everything worked out.
2. Pirates
Drafted: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
Predicted: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
The Pirates wanted him and he wanted to be there. It was meant to be.
3. Royals
Drafted: Eric Homser, 1B, American Heritage HS
Predicted: Aaron Crow, P, Missouri; Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
I thought Homser would have dropped due to bonus demands, but the Royals really stepped up here. Hopefully they can sign him.
4. Orioles
Drafted: Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Predicted: Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Matusz was the top pitcher available. Scouts said that there was a hint of Erik Bedard to him, so it seemed perfect for the Orioles.
5. Giants
Drafted: Buster Posey, C, Florida St.
Predicted: TiM Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA); Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
The Giants have no catching and this will be a good fit for them. Hopefully the rebuilding will be in place when he's ready.
6. Marlins
Drafted: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
Predicted: Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
They went as everyone was predicted - one of the few.
7. Reds
Drafted: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
Predicted: Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO); Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Even with 3 young arms at the MLB level, I thought the Reds would go pitcher. Instead, they started the trend of passing on pitchers to get strong hitters.
8. White Sox
Drafted: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
Predicted: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia; Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Beckham fits pretty well here. He'll move fast and they'll have an opening.
9. Nationals
Drafted: Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Predicted: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina; Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
The Nationals really need arms and I didn't expect Crow to fall to them. Crow will probably move fast.
10. Astros
Drafted: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
Predicted: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL); Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
I'm still scratching my head here. There was a big drop off after Castro in catchers, but he's definitely a reach here (especially for a team that has a young catcher already).
11. Rangers
Drafted: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Predicted: Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane; Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
This was again the case of not expecting him to be here. They get a good first baseman that will move pretty fast.
12. Atletics
Drafted: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
Predicted: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami; Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St
I'm surprised here. I know I predicted it in the first mock draft, but I thought he was a stretch. Weeks does hit well and fields better than his brother; both things Billy Beane looks for.
13. Cardinals
Drafted: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St.
Predicted: Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
I'm happy. They took a power bat instead of a college pitcher or high school fielder. He's expected to start in Hi A and move fast. He'll probably stay at 3B or move to LF.
14. Twins
Drafted: Aaron Hick, OF, Woodrow Wilson HS
Predicted: Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA); Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St
Hick's name popped up often before the draft. He'll be a good outfielder in a few years.
15. Dodgers
Drafted: Ethan Martin, P, Stephens County HS
Predicted: Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA); Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO)
Martin has upside as a hitter and a pitcher, but the Dodgers want him as a pitcher.
16. Brewers
Drafted: Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS
Predicted: Josh Fields, P, Georgia
Lawrie put on some impressive workouts in the last few weeks; his stock really took off in the last 10 days. They'll use him at catcher, but he also plays 2B.
17. Blue Jays
Drafted: David Cooper, 1B, UC Berkley
Predicted: Alex Meyers, P, Greensburg HS (IN)
I saw Cooper as an end of the first round talent, but the Jays saw something different. He's part of the reason some pitchers dropped.
18. Mets
Drafted: Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona St.
Predicted: Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St; Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA)
Same as Cooper, but he was projecting as a supplemental pick. The Mets could have grabbed him with their next pick.
19. Cubs
Drafted: Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
Predicted: Aaron Hicks, CF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
Hicks moved up, so they took a college reliever who will move fast.
20. Mariners
Drafted: Josh Fields, P, Georgia
Predicted: Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
Cashner and Fields were interchangible for the Mariners.
21. Tigers
Drafted: Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
Predicted: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
Since Hosmer's signability questions were quieted, he didn't drop. The Tigers took a college closer that could be moved to a starter. He's a safe pick for a team that likes upside.
22. Mets
Drafted: David Havens, SS, South Carolina
Predicted: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
I know little about Havens, but I don't think a college SS is really what they needed, or the best pick available.
23. Padres
Drafted: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
Predicted: Dennis Raben, OF, Miami (FL)
See Ike Davis.
24. Phillies
Drafted: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School
Predicted: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St; Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
Hewitt is one of the better middle infielders available, so it wasn't a bad pick. Their system doesn't offer much infield-wise, so he'll be a definite improvement.
25. Rockies
Drafted: Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
Predicted: Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
This guy wasn't supposed to fall this far; he did and the Rockies will reap the benefits. He'll move pretty fast and they need the pitching depth.
26. Diamondbacks
Drafted: Daniel Schlereth, P, Arizona
Predicted: Bryan Price, P, Rice
The local product wants to be up in the Majors by September, which is certainly possible.
27. Twins
Drafted: Carlos Gutierrez, P, Miami
Predicted: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State; Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
I don't know much about Gutierrez; he's a reliever and should move fast.
28. Yankees
Drafted: Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS
Predicted: David Cooper, 1B, California
This is a definite upgrade over my prediction. Cole is one of the better HS arms available.
29. Indians
Drafted: Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC
Predicted: James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
This is a risky pick, because he was kicked out of a major college program for stealing money from the coach's wallet. If the character issues are behind him, he could be a decent pick.
30. Red Sox
Drafted: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS
Predicted: Casey Kelly, SS/P, Sarasota HS (FL)
Many thought he'd go higher, but his commitment to football scared teams. The Red Sox will give the money to keep him in baseball. He'll be a hitter; his pitching ability is pretty raw.
The supplemental round:
31. Twins - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
All I can say is I'm shocked he fell out of the first round.
32. Brewers - Jake Odorizzi, P, Highland HS
He's from near me, and got a lot of hype before the draft.
33. Mets - Brad Holt, P, UNC Wilmington
34. Phillies - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS
Another big drop.
35. Brewers - Evan Frederick, P, San Francisco
36. Royals - Michael Montgomery, P, Hart HS
37. Giants - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita St.
This is perfect for the Giants - he's going to be ready fast and they need the help.
38. Astros - Jordan Lyles, P, Hartsville HS
39. Cardinals - Lance Lynn, P, Mississippi
40. Braves - Brett DeVall, P, Niceville HS
41. Cubs - Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
42. Padres - Jaff Decker, OF, Sunrise Mountain HS
43. Diamondbacks - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
44. Yankees - Jeremy Bleich, P, Stanford
45. Red Sox - Bryan Price, P, Rice
46. Padres - John Forsythe, 3B, Arkansas Fayetteville
Tim Mehlville, another kid from my area, was supposed to be the top HS arm in the draft, but he didn't have a good season (he got better as it went on, but he didn't look the same as the previous year). Rumor has it his parents sent a letter to the MLB teams stating he wanted high first round money no matter where he was drafted. He also has a commitment to North Carolina. My guess is he will be playing there next year instead of the Royals system.
1. Rays
Drafted: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
Predicted: Buster Posey, C, Florida St
Last minute demands are apparently what knocked Posey down to the Giants. Beckham should have been the first pick, so everything worked out.
2. Pirates
Drafted: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
Predicted: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
The Pirates wanted him and he wanted to be there. It was meant to be.
3. Royals
Drafted: Eric Homser, 1B, American Heritage HS
Predicted: Aaron Crow, P, Missouri; Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
I thought Homser would have dropped due to bonus demands, but the Royals really stepped up here. Hopefully they can sign him.
4. Orioles
Drafted: Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Predicted: Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Matusz was the top pitcher available. Scouts said that there was a hint of Erik Bedard to him, so it seemed perfect for the Orioles.
5. Giants
Drafted: Buster Posey, C, Florida St.
Predicted: TiM Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA); Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
The Giants have no catching and this will be a good fit for them. Hopefully the rebuilding will be in place when he's ready.
6. Marlins
Drafted: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
Predicted: Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
They went as everyone was predicted - one of the few.
7. Reds
Drafted: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
Predicted: Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO); Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Even with 3 young arms at the MLB level, I thought the Reds would go pitcher. Instead, they started the trend of passing on pitchers to get strong hitters.
8. White Sox
Drafted: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
Predicted: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia; Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Beckham fits pretty well here. He'll move fast and they'll have an opening.
9. Nationals
Drafted: Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Predicted: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina; Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
The Nationals really need arms and I didn't expect Crow to fall to them. Crow will probably move fast.
10. Astros
Drafted: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
Predicted: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL); Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
I'm still scratching my head here. There was a big drop off after Castro in catchers, but he's definitely a reach here (especially for a team that has a young catcher already).
11. Rangers
Drafted: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Predicted: Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane; Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
This was again the case of not expecting him to be here. They get a good first baseman that will move pretty fast.
12. Atletics
Drafted: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
Predicted: Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami; Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St
I'm surprised here. I know I predicted it in the first mock draft, but I thought he was a stretch. Weeks does hit well and fields better than his brother; both things Billy Beane looks for.
13. Cardinals
Drafted: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St.
Predicted: Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
I'm happy. They took a power bat instead of a college pitcher or high school fielder. He's expected to start in Hi A and move fast. He'll probably stay at 3B or move to LF.
14. Twins
Drafted: Aaron Hick, OF, Woodrow Wilson HS
Predicted: Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA); Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St
Hick's name popped up often before the draft. He'll be a good outfielder in a few years.
15. Dodgers
Drafted: Ethan Martin, P, Stephens County HS
Predicted: Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA); Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO)
Martin has upside as a hitter and a pitcher, but the Dodgers want him as a pitcher.
16. Brewers
Drafted: Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS
Predicted: Josh Fields, P, Georgia
Lawrie put on some impressive workouts in the last few weeks; his stock really took off in the last 10 days. They'll use him at catcher, but he also plays 2B.
17. Blue Jays
Drafted: David Cooper, 1B, UC Berkley
Predicted: Alex Meyers, P, Greensburg HS (IN)
I saw Cooper as an end of the first round talent, but the Jays saw something different. He's part of the reason some pitchers dropped.
18. Mets
Drafted: Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona St.
Predicted: Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St; Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA)
Same as Cooper, but he was projecting as a supplemental pick. The Mets could have grabbed him with their next pick.
19. Cubs
Drafted: Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
Predicted: Aaron Hicks, CF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
Hicks moved up, so they took a college reliever who will move fast.
20. Mariners
Drafted: Josh Fields, P, Georgia
Predicted: Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
Cashner and Fields were interchangible for the Mariners.
21. Tigers
Drafted: Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
Predicted: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
Since Hosmer's signability questions were quieted, he didn't drop. The Tigers took a college closer that could be moved to a starter. He's a safe pick for a team that likes upside.
22. Mets
Drafted: David Havens, SS, South Carolina
Predicted: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
I know little about Havens, but I don't think a college SS is really what they needed, or the best pick available.
23. Padres
Drafted: Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
Predicted: Dennis Raben, OF, Miami (FL)
See Ike Davis.
24. Phillies
Drafted: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School
Predicted: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St; Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
Hewitt is one of the better middle infielders available, so it wasn't a bad pick. Their system doesn't offer much infield-wise, so he'll be a definite improvement.
25. Rockies
Drafted: Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
Predicted: Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
This guy wasn't supposed to fall this far; he did and the Rockies will reap the benefits. He'll move pretty fast and they need the pitching depth.
26. Diamondbacks
Drafted: Daniel Schlereth, P, Arizona
Predicted: Bryan Price, P, Rice
The local product wants to be up in the Majors by September, which is certainly possible.
27. Twins
Drafted: Carlos Gutierrez, P, Miami
Predicted: Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State; Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
I don't know much about Gutierrez; he's a reliever and should move fast.
28. Yankees
Drafted: Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS
Predicted: David Cooper, 1B, California
This is a definite upgrade over my prediction. Cole is one of the better HS arms available.
29. Indians
Drafted: Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC
Predicted: James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
This is a risky pick, because he was kicked out of a major college program for stealing money from the coach's wallet. If the character issues are behind him, he could be a decent pick.
30. Red Sox
Drafted: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS
Predicted: Casey Kelly, SS/P, Sarasota HS (FL)
Many thought he'd go higher, but his commitment to football scared teams. The Red Sox will give the money to keep him in baseball. He'll be a hitter; his pitching ability is pretty raw.
The supplemental round:
31. Twins - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
All I can say is I'm shocked he fell out of the first round.
32. Brewers - Jake Odorizzi, P, Highland HS
He's from near me, and got a lot of hype before the draft.
33. Mets - Brad Holt, P, UNC Wilmington
34. Phillies - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS
Another big drop.
35. Brewers - Evan Frederick, P, San Francisco
36. Royals - Michael Montgomery, P, Hart HS
37. Giants - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita St.
This is perfect for the Giants - he's going to be ready fast and they need the help.
38. Astros - Jordan Lyles, P, Hartsville HS
39. Cardinals - Lance Lynn, P, Mississippi
40. Braves - Brett DeVall, P, Niceville HS
41. Cubs - Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
42. Padres - Jaff Decker, OF, Sunrise Mountain HS
43. Diamondbacks - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
44. Yankees - Jeremy Bleich, P, Stanford
45. Red Sox - Bryan Price, P, Rice
46. Padres - John Forsythe, 3B, Arkansas Fayetteville
Tim Mehlville, another kid from my area, was supposed to be the top HS arm in the draft, but he didn't have a good season (he got better as it went on, but he didn't look the same as the previous year). Rumor has it his parents sent a letter to the MLB teams stating he wanted high first round money no matter where he was drafted. He also has a commitment to North Carolina. My guess is he will be playing there next year instead of the Royals system.
The Draft: The First Round
Here is the complete first round, including all the supplemental picks:
1. Rays - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Royals - Eric Homser, 1B, American Heritage HS
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
5. Giants - Buster Posey, C, Florida St.
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS
7. Reds - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
8. White Sox - James Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Nationals - Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
10. Astros - Jason Castro, C, Stanford
11. Rangers - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
12. Atletics - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
13. Cardinals - Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St.
14. Twins - Aaron Hick, OF, Woodrow Wilson HS
15. Dodgers - Ethan Martin, P, Stephens County HS
16. Brewers - Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS
17. Blue Jays - David Cooper, 1B, UC Berkley
18. Mets - Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona St.
19. Cubs - Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
20. Mariners - Josh Fields, P, Georgia
21. Tigers - Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
22. Mets - David Havens, SS, South Carolina
23. Padres - Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
24. Phillies - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School
25. Rockies - Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
26. Diamondbacks - Daniel Schlereth, P, Arizona
27. Twins - Carlos Gutierrez, P, Miami
28. Yankees - Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS
29. Indians - Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC
30. Red Sox - Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS
31. Twins - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
32. Brewers - Jake Odorizzi, P, Highland HS
33. Mets - Brad Holt, P, UNC Wilmington
34. Phillies - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS
35. Brewers - Evan Frederick, P, San Francisco
36. Royals - Michael Montgomery, P, Hart HS
37. Giants - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita St.
38. Astros - Jordan Lyles, P, Hartsville HS
39. Cardinals - Michael Lynn, P, Mississippi
40. Braves - Brett DeVall, P, Niceville HS
41. Cubs - Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
42. Padres - Jaff Decker, OF, Sunrise Mountain HS
43. Diamondbacks - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
44. Yankees - Jeremy Bleich, P, Stanford
45. Red Sox - Bryan Price, P, Rice
46. Padres - John Forsythe, 3B, Arkansas Fayetteville
1. Rays - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Royals - Eric Homser, 1B, American Heritage HS
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
5. Giants - Buster Posey, C, Florida St.
6. Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS
7. Reds - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami
8. White Sox - James Beckham, SS, Georgia
9. Nationals - Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
10. Astros - Jason Castro, C, Stanford
11. Rangers - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
12. Atletics - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
13. Cardinals - Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St.
14. Twins - Aaron Hick, OF, Woodrow Wilson HS
15. Dodgers - Ethan Martin, P, Stephens County HS
16. Brewers - Brett Lawrie, C, Brookswood SS
17. Blue Jays - David Cooper, 1B, UC Berkley
18. Mets - Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona St.
19. Cubs - Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
20. Mariners - Josh Fields, P, Georgia
21. Tigers - Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
22. Mets - David Havens, SS, South Carolina
23. Padres - Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest
24. Phillies - Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School
25. Rockies - Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
26. Diamondbacks - Daniel Schlereth, P, Arizona
27. Twins - Carlos Gutierrez, P, Miami
28. Yankees - Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS
29. Indians - Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Pitt CC
30. Red Sox - Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS
31. Twins - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
32. Brewers - Jake Odorizzi, P, Highland HS
33. Mets - Brad Holt, P, UNC Wilmington
34. Phillies - Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS
35. Brewers - Evan Frederick, P, San Francisco
36. Royals - Michael Montgomery, P, Hart HS
37. Giants - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita St.
38. Astros - Jordan Lyles, P, Hartsville HS
39. Cardinals - Michael Lynn, P, Mississippi
40. Braves - Brett DeVall, P, Niceville HS
41. Cubs - Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
42. Padres - Jaff Decker, OF, Sunrise Mountain HS
43. Diamondbacks - Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
44. Yankees - Jeremy Bleich, P, Stanford
45. Red Sox - Bryan Price, P, Rice
46. Padres - John Forsythe, 3B, Arkansas Fayetteville
6.05.2008
TTM Update
I sent a second envelope to Chris Perez on Monday with tickets from his first win, which he said he wanted.
I also sent out this morning to Joe Mather, Albert Pujols (on the off chance I can appeal to him signing 1 card), and Jay Bruce.
I sent 2 tickets to Mather's debut for him.
I also sent out this morning to Joe Mather, Albert Pujols (on the off chance I can appeal to him signing 1 card), and Jay Bruce.
I sent 2 tickets to Mather's debut for him.
Draft Analysis: Team By Team
In continuing the look at the draft, one thing I was always curious about is which team is the most successful in drafting. So, taking the last 10 years, I looked at how many picks a team has made and how many picks that signed made it to the majors.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 14,766 picks total, or an average of 1477 per year. Of those picks, 893 have signed and made it to the majors; that's only 6% drafted (I would have looked at how many had signed, but that information was sketchy).
As time goes on, more players make it to the majors. 1998-2000 had 10% of the picks make it to the majors; every year since then the percentage has dropped. It's to be expected, since most players need time to develop in the minors.
Here are the percentages of players who have made it to the majors for the last 10 year:
2007 - 0%
2006 - 1%
2005 - 2%
2004 - 5%
2003 - 6%
2002 - 8%
2001 - 9%
2000 - 10%
1999 - 10%
1998 - 10%
On a team basis, Oakland and San Francisco have the best success rate - 9% of their draftees make it to the majors.
First, a disclaimer: the MLB debut doesn't mean with team that drafted the player. For example, Matt Murton was drafted by the Red Sox but traded to the Cubs before his MLB debut; Murton counts with the Red Sox since they drafted him.
Oakland has drafted 445 players in the last 10 years and 41 have played at least 1 game in the majors.
San Francisco was right there with them: they took 503 players in the draft and 44 have played in a MLB game.
Here's how the teams rank:
Oakland 9%
San Francisco 9%
Arizona 8%
Colorado 8%
Chicago (NL) 7%
Kansas City 7%
Toronto 7%
Pittsburgh 7%
Atlanta 7%
St. Louis 6%
Chicago (AL) 6%
Houston 6%
Tampa Bay 6%
Washington 6%
New York (NL) 6%
Detroit 6%
Boston 6%
Los Angeles (AL) 6%
Texas 6%
Minnesota 6%
Los Angeles (NL) 5%
San Diego 5%
Philadelphia 5%
Baltimore 5%
Milwaukee 5%
Seattle 5%
Florida 5%
New York (AL) 4%
Cleveland 4%
Cincinnati 4%
What can we learn from this? Of the top 5, 3 are considered small market teams (Oakland, Arizona, Colorado) and have success developing their own players. Oakland does tend to get a lot of prospects through trade, but the other 2 have developed much of their current teams through the draft (Arizona has drafted Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Tracy, Upton, and Webb among others while Colorado has drafted Helton, Barmes, Tulowitzki, Akins, Hawpe, Holliday, Cook, and Fuentes).
Only 1 large market club is in the top 10 - the Cubs. Most of the larger teams are lower since A) they sign more free agents, B) they lose picks when signing free agents, and C) normally have the resources to scout foreign countries. The Red Sox ranked 17th, the Angels 18th, the Dodgers 21st, and the Yankees 28th.
One thing that is starting to balance out for the smaller clubs is the opportunity in foreign countries. Right now, only players in the US, US territories, and Canada are drafted (the exception is players who defect from Cuba - they can be drafted unless they set up citizenship in another country, a la Jose Contreras). That means players from Central America, South America, Asia, Australia, and islands in the Caribbean can sign with a team at the age of 16. Most teams have set up academies in the Dominican and have teams for Venezuela.
Eventually, I'm going to sit down and break down Oakland's drafts to see why they are successful; is their something in the players they like or is it just luck?
The Draft is today at 1 PM EST.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 14,766 picks total, or an average of 1477 per year. Of those picks, 893 have signed and made it to the majors; that's only 6% drafted (I would have looked at how many had signed, but that information was sketchy).
As time goes on, more players make it to the majors. 1998-2000 had 10% of the picks make it to the majors; every year since then the percentage has dropped. It's to be expected, since most players need time to develop in the minors.
Here are the percentages of players who have made it to the majors for the last 10 year:
2007 - 0%
2006 - 1%
2005 - 2%
2004 - 5%
2003 - 6%
2002 - 8%
2001 - 9%
2000 - 10%
1999 - 10%
1998 - 10%
On a team basis, Oakland and San Francisco have the best success rate - 9% of their draftees make it to the majors.
First, a disclaimer: the MLB debut doesn't mean with team that drafted the player. For example, Matt Murton was drafted by the Red Sox but traded to the Cubs before his MLB debut; Murton counts with the Red Sox since they drafted him.
Oakland has drafted 445 players in the last 10 years and 41 have played at least 1 game in the majors.
San Francisco was right there with them: they took 503 players in the draft and 44 have played in a MLB game.
Here's how the teams rank:
Oakland 9%
San Francisco 9%
Arizona 8%
Colorado 8%
Chicago (NL) 7%
Kansas City 7%
Toronto 7%
Pittsburgh 7%
Atlanta 7%
St. Louis 6%
Chicago (AL) 6%
Houston 6%
Tampa Bay 6%
Washington 6%
New York (NL) 6%
Detroit 6%
Boston 6%
Los Angeles (AL) 6%
Texas 6%
Minnesota 6%
Los Angeles (NL) 5%
San Diego 5%
Philadelphia 5%
Baltimore 5%
Milwaukee 5%
Seattle 5%
Florida 5%
New York (AL) 4%
Cleveland 4%
Cincinnati 4%
What can we learn from this? Of the top 5, 3 are considered small market teams (Oakland, Arizona, Colorado) and have success developing their own players. Oakland does tend to get a lot of prospects through trade, but the other 2 have developed much of their current teams through the draft (Arizona has drafted Jackson, Drew, Reynolds, Tracy, Upton, and Webb among others while Colorado has drafted Helton, Barmes, Tulowitzki, Akins, Hawpe, Holliday, Cook, and Fuentes).
Only 1 large market club is in the top 10 - the Cubs. Most of the larger teams are lower since A) they sign more free agents, B) they lose picks when signing free agents, and C) normally have the resources to scout foreign countries. The Red Sox ranked 17th, the Angels 18th, the Dodgers 21st, and the Yankees 28th.
One thing that is starting to balance out for the smaller clubs is the opportunity in foreign countries. Right now, only players in the US, US territories, and Canada are drafted (the exception is players who defect from Cuba - they can be drafted unless they set up citizenship in another country, a la Jose Contreras). That means players from Central America, South America, Asia, Australia, and islands in the Caribbean can sign with a team at the age of 16. Most teams have set up academies in the Dominican and have teams for Venezuela.
Eventually, I'm going to sit down and break down Oakland's drafts to see why they are successful; is their something in the players they like or is it just luck?
The Draft is today at 1 PM EST.
Daily Update: 06/05/2008
A little bit of pre-draft buzz:
Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus is reporting that Buster Posey is asking for $12M and, therefore, the Rays will be selecting Tim Beckham first overall.
The Reds are narrowing down their list (Matusz, Posey, Beckham, and Alonso), as most other teams are.
The Pirates are set and almost guaranteed to get Pedro Alvarez.
Top pitchers Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow are dropping due to teams looking for stronger bats, where there are at the top here.
The Draft is today at 1 PM EST.
Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus is reporting that Buster Posey is asking for $12M and, therefore, the Rays will be selecting Tim Beckham first overall.
The Reds are narrowing down their list (Matusz, Posey, Beckham, and Alonso), as most other teams are.
The Pirates are set and almost guaranteed to get Pedro Alvarez.
Top pitchers Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow are dropping due to teams looking for stronger bats, where there are at the top here.
The Draft is today at 1 PM EST.
6.04.2008
TTM Project Update 3
Well, I've been on a role. Yesterday I received:
Max Scherzer 1/1 C/O Diamondbacks
That brings me to 22% success on this load.
Here are the scans of the first few:
Chris Perez 1
Chris Perez 2
Chris Perez 3
Hank Aaron
Jess Todd
Max Scherzer 1/1 C/O Diamondbacks
That brings me to 22% success on this load.
Here are the scans of the first few:
Chris Perez 1
Chris Perez 2
Chris Perez 3
Hank Aaron
Jess Todd
Draft Analysis: The First Round
If you were to be drafted by a baseball team, would you want to be the first pick or the second pick?
Before you answer, consider more 2nd picks in the last 20 years have made it to the Majors than first rounders.
Of everyone drafted since 1988, the player selected with the second pick has been a MLB player 18 out of 20 times. 1 player didn't make it to the majors, while the other didn't sign and was re-drafted later on.
The first pick and the 10th pick both made it to the Majors at an 85% clip (17 out of 20). There has not been a first pick that didn't sign. I expect this to go up since David Price will make it to the majors (although, people said that about Brien Taylor years ago).
The least successful place to be selected is the 18 pick (too bad for Mets fans, but at least they still have another first rounder); only 35% of the players here have made it to the big leagues.
Here are the full percentages for picks 1-30:
2 - 90% (1 did not sign)
1 - 85%
10 - 85% (1 did not sign)
22 - 80%
4 - 75%
3 - 70% (1 did not sign)
7 - 70% (1 did not sign)
12 - 70%
14 - 70%
16 - 70%
23 - 70% (1 did not sign)
5 - 65%
25 - 65%
9 - 60%
19 - 60%
6 - 55% (1 did not sign)
15 - 55%
17 - 55%
21 - 55% (1 did not sign)
13 - 50%
20 - 50% (1 did not sign)
30 - 50% (1 did not sign)
8 - 45% (2 did not sign)
24 - 45% (2 did not sign)
28 - 45% (2 did not sign)
11 - 40% (2 did not sign)
26 - 40% (2 did not sign)
27 - 40% (2 did not sign)
29 - 40%
18 - 35%
All of these could see a 5% increase except pick 6, since Ross Detwiler (#6 last year) was the only player to get a call up from the 2007 draft.
I don't really think there is a reason for this; it's not like a specific pick really has a better chance of making it than another one. I did notice that as the percentage drops, there are more players that didn't sign. All we can take from this is the teams need to sign their draftees (I think this is true for the first 5 rounds - not just this one).
I looked at the supplemental first round picks as well, but there was even less correlation there. Since there are a different number of picks each year, it was hard to gage after pick 30 (for example, players taken with the 50th pick make it to the majors at a 67% clip, since there have only been 3 supplement picks going as high as 50 - 2007 had the most supplement picks with 64 first rounders total).
Picks 52 through 64 have not had a player make it up to the big leagues, but that's because 2007 was the only year to have first rounders in pick 53 through 64.
So, the supplement picks are pretty much worthless in tracking like this.
Before you answer, consider more 2nd picks in the last 20 years have made it to the Majors than first rounders.
Of everyone drafted since 1988, the player selected with the second pick has been a MLB player 18 out of 20 times. 1 player didn't make it to the majors, while the other didn't sign and was re-drafted later on.
The first pick and the 10th pick both made it to the Majors at an 85% clip (17 out of 20). There has not been a first pick that didn't sign. I expect this to go up since David Price will make it to the majors (although, people said that about Brien Taylor years ago).
The least successful place to be selected is the 18 pick (too bad for Mets fans, but at least they still have another first rounder); only 35% of the players here have made it to the big leagues.
Here are the full percentages for picks 1-30:
2 - 90% (1 did not sign)
1 - 85%
10 - 85% (1 did not sign)
22 - 80%
4 - 75%
3 - 70% (1 did not sign)
7 - 70% (1 did not sign)
12 - 70%
14 - 70%
16 - 70%
23 - 70% (1 did not sign)
5 - 65%
25 - 65%
9 - 60%
19 - 60%
6 - 55% (1 did not sign)
15 - 55%
17 - 55%
21 - 55% (1 did not sign)
13 - 50%
20 - 50% (1 did not sign)
30 - 50% (1 did not sign)
8 - 45% (2 did not sign)
24 - 45% (2 did not sign)
28 - 45% (2 did not sign)
11 - 40% (2 did not sign)
26 - 40% (2 did not sign)
27 - 40% (2 did not sign)
29 - 40%
18 - 35%
All of these could see a 5% increase except pick 6, since Ross Detwiler (#6 last year) was the only player to get a call up from the 2007 draft.
I don't really think there is a reason for this; it's not like a specific pick really has a better chance of making it than another one. I did notice that as the percentage drops, there are more players that didn't sign. All we can take from this is the teams need to sign their draftees (I think this is true for the first 5 rounds - not just this one).
I looked at the supplemental first round picks as well, but there was even less correlation there. Since there are a different number of picks each year, it was hard to gage after pick 30 (for example, players taken with the 50th pick make it to the majors at a 67% clip, since there have only been 3 supplement picks going as high as 50 - 2007 had the most supplement picks with 64 first rounders total).
Picks 52 through 64 have not had a player make it up to the big leagues, but that's because 2007 was the only year to have first rounders in pick 53 through 64.
So, the supplement picks are pretty much worthless in tracking like this.
Daily Update: 06/04/2008
A lot of draft chatter yesterday. Here's the rundown of who likes who:
- Pedro Alvarez would like to join the Pirates.
- The Padres like Brett Wallace.
- The Twins like Christian Friedrich.
- The Giants like Gordon Beckham.
- The Reds are considering Brett Lawrie.
- The White Sox are thinking about Jason Castro.
- The Dodgers like Zach Collier.
As I put in my mock draft, I don't expect Wallace to be there for the Padres and Friedrich to be there for the Twins. Lawrie and Castro are stretches for those picks. I see the Dodgers taking Tim Mehlville if he's still there with their pick.
- Pedro Alvarez would like to join the Pirates.
- The Padres like Brett Wallace.
- The Twins like Christian Friedrich.
- The Giants like Gordon Beckham.
- The Reds are considering Brett Lawrie.
- The White Sox are thinking about Jason Castro.
- The Dodgers like Zach Collier.
As I put in my mock draft, I don't expect Wallace to be there for the Padres and Friedrich to be there for the Twins. Lawrie and Castro are stretches for those picks. I see the Dodgers taking Tim Mehlville if he's still there with their pick.
6.03.2008
Baseball Rankings: 06/03/2008
Disclaimer
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Here are the new and updated Baseball Rankings. Instead of just taking the record, pythagorean record, and farm system, I've given each part a weighed score:
- The Record accounts for half of the score. Since the standings are based of record, I thought it deserved more weight than the other parts.
- The Pythagorean Record is based off of Bill James theory that you can somewhat predict a team by runs scored and runs allowed. The Pythagorean Records accounts for a third of the score.
- The Farm System is worth a sixth of the scoring, since it will impact the team, but maybe not now.
- The Standard Deviation is 3 wins.
All stats and records are prior to games on Tuesday. I'm going to start putting each teams score up; max score is 90 points.
Mock Draft Update
Here's my updated draft board, based off recent rumors. All updates are in bold.
1. Rays - Buster Posey, C, Florida St
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Royals - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
5. Giants - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
6. Marlins - Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
7. Reds - Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
8. White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
9. Nationals - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
10. Astros - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
11. Rangers - Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
12. Athletics - Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St
13. Cardinals - Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
14. Twins - Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St
15. Dodgers - Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO)
16. Brewers - Josh Fields, P, Georgia
17. Blue Jays - Alex Meyers, P, Greensburg HS (IN)
18. Mets - Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA)
19. Cubs - Aaron Hicks, CF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
20. Mariners - Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
21. Tigers - Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
22. Mets - Jason Castro, C, Stanford
23. Padres - Dennis Raben, OF, Miami (FL)
24. Phillies - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
25. Rockies - Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
26. Diamondbacks - Bryan Price, P, Rice
27. Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
28. Yankees - David Cooper, 1B, California
29. Indians - James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
30. Red Sox - Casey Kelly, SS/P, Sarasota HS (FL)
1. Rays - Buster Posey, C, Florida St
2. Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
3. Royals - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (GA)
4. Orioles - Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
5. Giants - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
6. Marlins - Kyle Shipworth, C, Patriot HS (CA)
7. Reds - Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
8. White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
9. Nationals - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (FL)
10. Astros - Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane
11. Rangers - Gerrit Cole, P, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
12. Athletics - Tanner Scheppers, P, Fresno St
13. Cardinals - Christian Friedrich, P, Eastern Kentucky
14. Twins - Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona St
15. Dodgers - Tim Melville, P, Holt HS (MO)
16. Brewers - Josh Fields, P, Georgia
17. Blue Jays - Alex Meyers, P, Greensburg HS (IN)
18. Mets - Ethan Martin, P/3B, Stephens Co HS (GA)
19. Cubs - Aaron Hicks, CF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA)
20. Mariners - Andrew Cashner, P, Texas Christian
21. Tigers - Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS (FL)
22. Mets - Jason Castro, C, Stanford
23. Padres - Dennis Raben, OF, Miami (FL)
24. Phillies - Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State
25. Rockies - Ryan Perry, P, Arizona
26. Diamondbacks - Bryan Price, P, Rice
27. Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami
28. Yankees - David Cooper, 1B, California
29. Indians - James Darnell, 3B, South Carolina
30. Red Sox - Casey Kelly, SS/P, Sarasota HS (FL)
Daily Update: 06/03/2008
Bill Hall is unhappy with his situation in Milwaukee. He's started to lose playing time to Russell Branyan and feels he's earned an opportunity to try to get out of his funk since he's switched positions each of the last 2 seasons.
While the situation isn't the greatest, I don't think the team owes him anything. They've given him 2 months to get going and he hasn't. If they wait any longer, the team could be completely out of contention.
If I were the GM, I would check the trade market, but I wouldn't sell low. Hall is a useful player and I don't think they would get fair value for him. He's also fairly affordable for the next 2 seasons.
While the situation isn't the greatest, I don't think the team owes him anything. They've given him 2 months to get going and he hasn't. If they wait any longer, the team could be completely out of contention.
If I were the GM, I would check the trade market, but I wouldn't sell low. Hall is a useful player and I don't think they would get fair value for him. He's also fairly affordable for the next 2 seasons.
6.02.2008
TTM Project Update 2
I got 2 more cards in:
Hank Aaron, 1/1
C/O Atlanta Braves
7 days
Jess Todd, 1/1
C/O Springfield Cardinals
8 days
I was surprised to see the Aaron come back so quickly. I compared it to another Aaron I already have and it matches up.
So, after a little over a week, I'm sitting at a 17% success rate (3/18) - not bad. I've received 16% of the cards back signed that I sent (5/31).
Here's the updated list:
Aaron, Hank - Braves - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/30/2008
Cardenas, Adrian - Clearwater - 05/23/2008 - 3
Danks, John - White Sox - 05/23/2008 - 2
Detwiler, Ross - Potomac - 05/23/2008 - 1
Doolittle, Sean - Stockton - 05/23/2008 - 2
Hernandez, Livan - Twins - 05/23/2008 - 3
Heyward, Jason - Rome - 05/23/2008 - 2
Jimenez, Ubaldo - Rockies - 05/23/2008 - 2
LaPorta, Matt - Huntsville - 05/23/2008 - 1
McCormick, Mark - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1
Pedroia, Dustin - Red Sox - 05/23/2008 - 1
Perez, Chris - Cardinals - 05/23/2008 - 3/3 - 05/27/2008
Sandberg, Ryan - Peoria - 05/23/2008 - 1
Scherzer, Max - Diamondbacks - 05/23/2008 - 1
Smith, Joe - Mets - 05/23/2008 - 2
Tejada, Miguel - Astros - 05/23/2008 - 2
Todd, Jess - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/31/2008
Wieters, Matt - Frederick - 05/23/2008 - 1
Hank Aaron, 1/1
C/O Atlanta Braves
7 days
Jess Todd, 1/1
C/O Springfield Cardinals
8 days
I was surprised to see the Aaron come back so quickly. I compared it to another Aaron I already have and it matches up.
So, after a little over a week, I'm sitting at a 17% success rate (3/18) - not bad. I've received 16% of the cards back signed that I sent (5/31).
Here's the updated list:
Aaron, Hank - Braves - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/30/2008
Cardenas, Adrian - Clearwater - 05/23/2008 - 3
Danks, John - White Sox - 05/23/2008 - 2
Detwiler, Ross - Potomac - 05/23/2008 - 1
Doolittle, Sean - Stockton - 05/23/2008 - 2
Hernandez, Livan - Twins - 05/23/2008 - 3
Heyward, Jason - Rome - 05/23/2008 - 2
Jimenez, Ubaldo - Rockies - 05/23/2008 - 2
LaPorta, Matt - Huntsville - 05/23/2008 - 1
McCormick, Mark - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1
Pedroia, Dustin - Red Sox - 05/23/2008 - 1
Perez, Chris - Cardinals - 05/23/2008 - 3/3 - 05/27/2008
Sandberg, Ryan - Peoria - 05/23/2008 - 1
Scherzer, Max - Diamondbacks - 05/23/2008 - 1
Smith, Joe - Mets - 05/23/2008 - 2
Tejada, Miguel - Astros - 05/23/2008 - 2
Todd, Jess - Springfield - 05/23/2008 - 1/1 - 05/31/2008
Wieters, Matt - Frederick - 05/23/2008 - 1
25 Worst 1 Rd Picks of the Last 10 years
Since the baseball draft is this week, I'm running draft related columns all week.
Part 1 of draft week: The Top 25 Worst Draft Picks in the Last 10 Years (1998-2007):
25. Russ Adams (#14, 2002) - Adams was supposed to be the Blue Jays shortstop of the Future; instead he's been the shortstop of the present for Triple A Syracuse. I think the Blue Jays paniced on this pick because they were planning on taking Khalil Greene, who was taken with the previous pick.
Players taken after him: Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Jeff Francoeur.
24. Drew Meyers (#10, 2002) - The Rangers took Meyers even though he doesn't have the typical third baseman mold - he lacks power, but hits for high average. He's spent a whole 5 games up with the Rangers.
Players taken after him: Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir, James Loney.
23. Bill Bray (#13, 2004) - The National-Expos took Bray early, especially for a college closer. He hasn't made the jump to the major as well as they hoped and netted Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez when they moved him.
Player taken after him: Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Josh Fields.
22. Matt Campbell (#29, 2004) - The Royals took this pitcher that never advance higher than A Ball. They were pretty lost in this period as far as player personel goes.
Players taken after him: Eric Hurley, Zach Jackson, Gio Gonzalez.
21. Dave Krynzel (#11, 2000) - The Brewers drafted this speedy high school outfielder to have him make it through the system and stall at Triple A. He was eventually traded to the Diamondbacks, but still had no success. He's now playing independent ball.
Players taken after him: Chase Utley, Sean Burnett, Chris Bootcheck.
20. Eric Duncan (#27, 2003) - The Yankees believed Duncan was the future of the organization. He showed a ton of promise as he rose through the system; but he could never get over that Triple A hump. He's never hit above .250 at the level. The reason he's been so disappointing - any decent prospect in the Yankee systems get more hype than top guys in other systems.
Players taken after him: Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin, Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
19. Scott Moore (#8, 2002) - The Tigers took the proto-typical 4A player in Moore. He's been brilliant in the Minors, but it doesn't translate in the Majors. He's been traded twice since drafted and still can't get his ability to show.
Players taken after him: Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders.
18. Adam Johnson (#2, 2000) - The Twins selected Johnson with the second pick and he flew through the system. He was up with the Twins the year after he was draft - which turned out to be a disaster. In his 2 stints in the Majors, he had 10.25 ERA in 26.1 innings.
Players taken after him: Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli.
17. Bryan Bullington (#1, 2002) - The Pirates decide to go cheap on this draft and go with the Ball State product. While he's seen limited time in the majors, he's not #1 material (at this point, he doesn't look 1st round material).
Players taken after him: BJ Upton, Zach Greinke, Prince Fielder.
16. Chris Lambert (#19, 2004) - The Cardinals saw something in Lambert that no one else saw; everyone is still waiting to find out what it is. This pick summed up the Cardinals draft (and to show how they fixed the pick, they traded him for Mike Maroth).
Players taken after him: Phil Hughes, Taylor Tankersley, Blake DeWitt.
15. Kyle Sleeth (#3, 2003) - Sleeth was a can't miss prospect coming into the draft, so it was a no brainer for the Tigers to draft him. Unfortunately, the pitcher got injured and could never come back to the level expected of him. After making it to Double A last season, he retired this past spring.
Players taken after him: Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm, Jon Danks.
14. Jon Poterson (#37, 2004) - From first rounder by the Yankees to the Frontier League in 3 seasons. For some reason, high school catchers taken early in the draft don't fare well in professional ball (unless you are Joe Mauer).
Players taken after him: Huston Street, Reid Brignac, Yovani Gallardo.
13. Chris Gruler (#3, 2002) - The Reds took this raw high school pitcher and watched him fizzle right off the bat. He spend part of '02 and all of '03 in Lo A, and spent the rest of his career in Rookie level ball.
Players taken after him: Adam Loewen, Greinke, Francis.
12. Matt Harrington (#7, 2000) - The Rockies took Harrington, a high school pitcher, in a weak draft; of the 40 guys drafted in the first round, 19 made it to the majors. Most made it in professional ball. Harrington didn't sign with the Rockies, was drafted again in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004, each time moving further down the picks (36th round in '04). He never played a game in affiliated baseball.
Players taken after him: Joe Borchard, Chase Utley, Billy Traber.
11. Casey Fossum (#48, 1999) - Fossum was a top prospect for Boston after being drafted - he even made his MLB debut after a little over 50 starts in the minors (none above Double A). The sky was the limit. He was the centerpiece in the deal that brought Curt Schilling to the Red Sox. The only problem was he couldn't find consistancy. He moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back for a few years with the Rays before he couldn't make a MLB roster this spring.
Players taken after him: Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Brandon Phillips.
10. Michael Garciaparra (#36, 2001) - The Mariners thought Michael would be like Nomar, only the Nomar that started his career and not the Nomar of today. Michael took 4 seasons to develop and make it higher than Hi A ball. When he finally did start to hit, the Mariners were in a roster crunch and had to place him on waivers to get him of the 40 man roster. The Phillies claimed him on waivers, where he spent most of his season with Double A Reading. He hasn't played this year and is a safe bet to never make the majors.
Players taken after him: John Rheinecker, David Wright, Todd Linden.
9. Chris Smith (#7, 2001) - Smith was considered a stretch at this pick and he showed why. He only pitched 24 games in the minors for the Orioles, getting as high as Lo A. His career ended as a 4-5 pitcher with a 6.15 ERA (including half a season with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League).
Players taken after him: Chris Burke, Casey Kotchman, Gabe Gross.
8. Ryan Wagner (#14, 2003) - There were 2 closers coming into this draft that were can't miss players; the Reds took Wagner, their closer of the future, 6 picks before the Nationals took Chad Cordero. After Wagner was rushed to the Majors, he didn't have good command and lost his confidence. He was in the deal mentioned above that sent Bray to the Reds (moving him with Cordero, ironically).
Players taken after him: Brian Anderson, Conor Jackson, Chad Cordero.
7. CJ Henry (#17, 2005) - The Yankees made a puzzling selection taking this speedy SS ahead of many great names. Henry showed his speed, but little else in the Yankee system before he was the centerpiece of the Bobby Abreu trade with the Phillies. He looked worse after the trade.
Players taken after him: Cesar Carrillo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza.
6. Eric Munson (#3, 1999) - Munson was a top prospect out of high school, being drafted in the 2nd round by the Dodgers. Instead he went to college and was taken 3rd overall 3 years later. Munson was up with the Tigers a year after he was drafted and stuck with the team for the next couple of years. The problem was he is couldn't hit like he did in college. Since then, he's the classic 4A player which is why he'e with this 3rd team in 4 years.
Players taken after him: Barry Zito, Ben Sheets, Brett Myers.
5. Corey Patterson (#3, 1998) - Cubs fans can fill you in on Patterson. Top high school hitter who flashed the abilities to be a starting CF for a major league team. Those flashes started to dim as time when on. Some blamed it on rushing him up. Other never thought he was as good as advertised. It all looked like he had it all together in 2003, but an injury cut that season short. He's since been traded to the Orioles and signed as a free agent with the Reds. He's currently been displaced by Jay Bruce with the Reds and is working in Triple A (I also want to mention that some are worried Felix Pie is headed down this road).
Players taken after him: JD Drew, Austin Kerns, Felipe Lopez.
4. Sean Burroughs (#9, 1998) - The chubby face of the Little League World Series tried to do what most of those kids couldn't: make it to the big leagues. Burroughs started well, making it to Triple A 2 years after being drafted (and at the age of 20, no less). He started a pretty good career, but soon lost his hitting stroke. The Padres tried to get him going, but eventually gave up by sending him to the Devil Rays for...
Players taken after him: Carlos Pena, Adam Everett, Jeff Weaver.
3. Dewon Brazaelton (#3, 2001) - What better way to get noticed in the draft than to go 13-2 with 1.42 ERA in your last season at college. Unfortunately, he only had 2 winning seasons after that: 1-0 in 1 start in AA in 2002 and 2-0 in 2 starts in AA in 2003. He's currently looking for work.
Players taken after him: Gavin Floyd, Mark Teixeira, John Van Benschoten.
2. Jeff Allison (#16, 2003) - The Marlins know that high school pitchers are risky, but this was their first one that had a drug problem. He's played on and off since being drafted, but it doesn't look like he could be another Josh Hamilton at this point.
Players taken after him: David Aardsma, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley.
1. Matt Bush (#1, 2004) - The Padres went with the home town, cheap option here. The results were a .219 hitter that didn't get past A ball. In a last ditch effort to continue his career, he converted to a pitcher and has still done squat.
Players taken after him: Justin Verlander, Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers.
Part 1 of draft week: The Top 25 Worst Draft Picks in the Last 10 Years (1998-2007):
25. Russ Adams (#14, 2002) - Adams was supposed to be the Blue Jays shortstop of the Future; instead he's been the shortstop of the present for Triple A Syracuse. I think the Blue Jays paniced on this pick because they were planning on taking Khalil Greene, who was taken with the previous pick.
Players taken after him: Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Jeff Francoeur.
24. Drew Meyers (#10, 2002) - The Rangers took Meyers even though he doesn't have the typical third baseman mold - he lacks power, but hits for high average. He's spent a whole 5 games up with the Rangers.
Players taken after him: Khalil Greene, Scott Kazmir, James Loney.
23. Bill Bray (#13, 2004) - The National-Expos took Bray early, especially for a college closer. He hasn't made the jump to the major as well as they hoped and netted Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez when they moved him.
Player taken after him: Billy Butler, Stephen Drew, Josh Fields.
22. Matt Campbell (#29, 2004) - The Royals took this pitcher that never advance higher than A Ball. They were pretty lost in this period as far as player personel goes.
Players taken after him: Eric Hurley, Zach Jackson, Gio Gonzalez.
21. Dave Krynzel (#11, 2000) - The Brewers drafted this speedy high school outfielder to have him make it through the system and stall at Triple A. He was eventually traded to the Diamondbacks, but still had no success. He's now playing independent ball.
Players taken after him: Chase Utley, Sean Burnett, Chris Bootcheck.
20. Eric Duncan (#27, 2003) - The Yankees believed Duncan was the future of the organization. He showed a ton of promise as he rose through the system; but he could never get over that Triple A hump. He's never hit above .250 at the level. The reason he's been so disappointing - any decent prospect in the Yankee systems get more hype than top guys in other systems.
Players taken after him: Daric Barton, Carlos Quentin, Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
19. Scott Moore (#8, 2002) - The Tigers took the proto-typical 4A player in Moore. He's been brilliant in the Minors, but it doesn't translate in the Majors. He's been traded twice since drafted and still can't get his ability to show.
Players taken after him: Jeff Francis, Jeremy Hermida, Joe Saunders.
18. Adam Johnson (#2, 2000) - The Twins selected Johnson with the second pick and he flew through the system. He was up with the Twins the year after he was draft - which turned out to be a disaster. In his 2 stints in the Majors, he had 10.25 ERA in 26.1 innings.
Players taken after him: Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli.
17. Bryan Bullington (#1, 2002) - The Pirates decide to go cheap on this draft and go with the Ball State product. While he's seen limited time in the majors, he's not #1 material (at this point, he doesn't look 1st round material).
Players taken after him: BJ Upton, Zach Greinke, Prince Fielder.
16. Chris Lambert (#19, 2004) - The Cardinals saw something in Lambert that no one else saw; everyone is still waiting to find out what it is. This pick summed up the Cardinals draft (and to show how they fixed the pick, they traded him for Mike Maroth).
Players taken after him: Phil Hughes, Taylor Tankersley, Blake DeWitt.
15. Kyle Sleeth (#3, 2003) - Sleeth was a can't miss prospect coming into the draft, so it was a no brainer for the Tigers to draft him. Unfortunately, the pitcher got injured and could never come back to the level expected of him. After making it to Double A last season, he retired this past spring.
Players taken after him: Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm, Jon Danks.
14. Jon Poterson (#37, 2004) - From first rounder by the Yankees to the Frontier League in 3 seasons. For some reason, high school catchers taken early in the draft don't fare well in professional ball (unless you are Joe Mauer).
Players taken after him: Huston Street, Reid Brignac, Yovani Gallardo.
13. Chris Gruler (#3, 2002) - The Reds took this raw high school pitcher and watched him fizzle right off the bat. He spend part of '02 and all of '03 in Lo A, and spent the rest of his career in Rookie level ball.
Players taken after him: Adam Loewen, Greinke, Francis.
12. Matt Harrington (#7, 2000) - The Rockies took Harrington, a high school pitcher, in a weak draft; of the 40 guys drafted in the first round, 19 made it to the majors. Most made it in professional ball. Harrington didn't sign with the Rockies, was drafted again in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004, each time moving further down the picks (36th round in '04). He never played a game in affiliated baseball.
Players taken after him: Joe Borchard, Chase Utley, Billy Traber.
11. Casey Fossum (#48, 1999) - Fossum was a top prospect for Boston after being drafted - he even made his MLB debut after a little over 50 starts in the minors (none above Double A). The sky was the limit. He was the centerpiece in the deal that brought Curt Schilling to the Red Sox. The only problem was he couldn't find consistancy. He moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back for a few years with the Rays before he couldn't make a MLB roster this spring.
Players taken after him: Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Brandon Phillips.
10. Michael Garciaparra (#36, 2001) - The Mariners thought Michael would be like Nomar, only the Nomar that started his career and not the Nomar of today. Michael took 4 seasons to develop and make it higher than Hi A ball. When he finally did start to hit, the Mariners were in a roster crunch and had to place him on waivers to get him of the 40 man roster. The Phillies claimed him on waivers, where he spent most of his season with Double A Reading. He hasn't played this year and is a safe bet to never make the majors.
Players taken after him: John Rheinecker, David Wright, Todd Linden.
9. Chris Smith (#7, 2001) - Smith was considered a stretch at this pick and he showed why. He only pitched 24 games in the minors for the Orioles, getting as high as Lo A. His career ended as a 4-5 pitcher with a 6.15 ERA (including half a season with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League).
Players taken after him: Chris Burke, Casey Kotchman, Gabe Gross.
8. Ryan Wagner (#14, 2003) - There were 2 closers coming into this draft that were can't miss players; the Reds took Wagner, their closer of the future, 6 picks before the Nationals took Chad Cordero. After Wagner was rushed to the Majors, he didn't have good command and lost his confidence. He was in the deal mentioned above that sent Bray to the Reds (moving him with Cordero, ironically).
Players taken after him: Brian Anderson, Conor Jackson, Chad Cordero.
7. CJ Henry (#17, 2005) - The Yankees made a puzzling selection taking this speedy SS ahead of many great names. Henry showed his speed, but little else in the Yankee system before he was the centerpiece of the Bobby Abreu trade with the Phillies. He looked worse after the trade.
Players taken after him: Cesar Carrillo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza.
6. Eric Munson (#3, 1999) - Munson was a top prospect out of high school, being drafted in the 2nd round by the Dodgers. Instead he went to college and was taken 3rd overall 3 years later. Munson was up with the Tigers a year after he was drafted and stuck with the team for the next couple of years. The problem was he is couldn't hit like he did in college. Since then, he's the classic 4A player which is why he'e with this 3rd team in 4 years.
Players taken after him: Barry Zito, Ben Sheets, Brett Myers.
5. Corey Patterson (#3, 1998) - Cubs fans can fill you in on Patterson. Top high school hitter who flashed the abilities to be a starting CF for a major league team. Those flashes started to dim as time when on. Some blamed it on rushing him up. Other never thought he was as good as advertised. It all looked like he had it all together in 2003, but an injury cut that season short. He's since been traded to the Orioles and signed as a free agent with the Reds. He's currently been displaced by Jay Bruce with the Reds and is working in Triple A (I also want to mention that some are worried Felix Pie is headed down this road).
Players taken after him: JD Drew, Austin Kerns, Felipe Lopez.
4. Sean Burroughs (#9, 1998) - The chubby face of the Little League World Series tried to do what most of those kids couldn't: make it to the big leagues. Burroughs started well, making it to Triple A 2 years after being drafted (and at the age of 20, no less). He started a pretty good career, but soon lost his hitting stroke. The Padres tried to get him going, but eventually gave up by sending him to the Devil Rays for...
Players taken after him: Carlos Pena, Adam Everett, Jeff Weaver.
3. Dewon Brazaelton (#3, 2001) - What better way to get noticed in the draft than to go 13-2 with 1.42 ERA in your last season at college. Unfortunately, he only had 2 winning seasons after that: 1-0 in 1 start in AA in 2002 and 2-0 in 2 starts in AA in 2003. He's currently looking for work.
Players taken after him: Gavin Floyd, Mark Teixeira, John Van Benschoten.
2. Jeff Allison (#16, 2003) - The Marlins know that high school pitchers are risky, but this was their first one that had a drug problem. He's played on and off since being drafted, but it doesn't look like he could be another Josh Hamilton at this point.
Players taken after him: David Aardsma, Brandon Wood, Chad Billingsley.
1. Matt Bush (#1, 2004) - The Padres went with the home town, cheap option here. The results were a .219 hitter that didn't get past A ball. In a last ditch effort to continue his career, he converted to a pitcher and has still done squat.
Players taken after him: Justin Verlander, Phil Humber, Jeremy Sowers.
Weekend Update: 06/02/2008
Oakland was busy Friday. They made 9 roster moves before the game:
DFA - Lenny Dinardo, Kevin Mellilo
15-day DL - Joey Devine, Mike Sweeney, Ryan Sweeney
Off DL - Kiko Calero
Up from the Minors - Travis Buck, Carlos Gonzalez, Brad Ziegler
Gonzalez was the main piece in the Dan Haren deal, which is looking better and better based off the performances they gotten from the guys in the deal.
Oakland is making a run, when only 1 man thought they could. If they make it to the playoffs, Billy Beane needs to win the Executive of the Year award.
DFA - Lenny Dinardo, Kevin Mellilo
15-day DL - Joey Devine, Mike Sweeney, Ryan Sweeney
Off DL - Kiko Calero
Up from the Minors - Travis Buck, Carlos Gonzalez, Brad Ziegler
Gonzalez was the main piece in the Dan Haren deal, which is looking better and better based off the performances they gotten from the guys in the deal.
Oakland is making a run, when only 1 man thought they could. If they make it to the playoffs, Billy Beane needs to win the Executive of the Year award.
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