A Quick Look at the NL Central

Since I'm a Cardinals fan (and wrote this for a different site that's not going to use it), I thought I throw this up. Please note it was written before yesterdays games:

How do my rankings fare for the Cardinals and the Central? The Cubs currently have a game up on the Cardinals; if both teams continue at their current pace, the Cubs will win the division by 5 games.

Cubs 98-64 (currently 23-15)
Cardinals 93-69 (23-17)
Astros 91-71 (22-17)
Brewers 81-81 (19-19)
Pirates 77-85 (18-20)
Reds 66-96 (16-23)

The Cardinals would win the WC over the Astros by 2 games - much better than pre-season predictions.

The Astros have been hot recently a shot up the standings; I didn't expect this based off their moves in the off-season. This teams starting pitching is weak and they have nothing in they system if one of their veterans break down.

Milwaukee was expected to be in the Cardinal's shoes - battling it out with the Cubs for the top of the division. Bullpen breakdowns have killed this team, along with slow starts from most of their hitters. Once the bats wake up and something is done in the 'pen, look for Milwaukee to make a run. Don't be surprised if this happens under a different manager.

The Pirates have also been hot since dismissing Matt Morris. Nate McLouth is the spark plug for this team, but can he keep up his incredible numbers? I'm willing to guess he won't.

The poor Reds were supposed to have taken a step forward by hiring Dusty Baker; unfortunately they do anything else to help the team. Maybe Walt running the show will help change things.

Based off run differential, the standings change slightly:
Cubs 106-56 (currently 25-13)
Astros 91-71 (22-17)
Cardinals 90-72 (22-18)
Brewers 74-88 (17-21)
Pirates 73-89 (17-21)
Reds 69-93 (17-22)

The Cubs should have 2 additional wins, but have lost a couple of close games. The Cardinals have 1 more win than they really should - surprising considered they've blown 5 games. The Astros are on pace with where they should be. The other 3 don't currently matter (the Brewers could, but we'll worry about that when it happens).

The story would be rally different if Izzy could have hung on to those 5 games - they would have 1 few run scored, but 10 fewer runs allowed. Their projected record would then go to 94-68; good enough for the wild card.