Cardinal Prospect Update

From Future Redbirds:

I call it dangerous because I’m sure I may end up looking back on these and think to myself “what was I smoking?”. I have a love-hate relationship with prospect rankings. It’s just that they can so debatable, which makes them fun and also makes them mind-numbing. And I think some sites out there just throw together rankings all too willy-nilly, because people like discussing lists and it’s a cheap way to get people to visit and talk about your site. I don’t want to do that. But I have been thinking about this for a while…there have been some players who have had some serious helium-Jess Todd and Daryl Jones for example-and other players have fallen out of the picture. And there also was a draft this past June, in case you haven’t heard. So therefore, I figure my personal rankings could use an update. I’m not going to go as far as 25 like I do in the winter; we’ll just go with 15 for right now w/mini-snippets on why they are there.

1. Colby Rasmus-Prolonged early season slump or no slump, Colby’s status has not changed.
2. Brett Wallace- Thinking about Rasmus, Wallace and Pujols in the same lineup in the near future is pretty exciting. If that doesn’t work out, maybe they can also flip him for a former Cy Young winner.
3. Bryan Anderson-It’s a coin flip between Jaime Garcia and Anderson here for me, but I’ll give the slight edge to Anderson. He’s improved his defense and has not stopped hitting despite the challenges thrown at him. Will he still be around after the All Star break is the question.
4. Jaime Garcia-After obliterating AA, he’s had his ups and downs in AAA but is still holding his own.
5. Clayton Mortensen-His ERA is fine, but peripherals are actually pretty ugly in AAA, but he’s still getting a lot of groundballs and the Cardinals seem to have challenged him more than anyone in the system.
6. Daryl Jones-Daryl fell from grace last year, missing BA’s Top 30 entirely. Since then, he became a baseball player. The gap between what he is now and what he will become (20/20 OF, good OBP, defense) is still high, but nowhere near as high as it was just a year ago.
7. Jess Todd will destroy us all. What excites me more than anything about Todd is he’s been so adaptable. He quickly picked up the cutter and seems to be doing the same with a 2-seam fastball. His feel for pitching stands out more than his stuff.
8. Pete Kozma-I’m nicer to Kozma than some of my compadres here at the blog. I think he should be at least an average MLB SS, but after a hot April he’s done nothing to impress me at all. Having seen him several times in person and on the local TV station here, I’ve come up with a conspiracy theory–He changed up his swing a little and become a little more of a power hitter out of spring training. Then, at the first sign of a slump he went back to what felt comfortable to him and has become nothing more than a singles hitter. It’s just a theory, and I’m not certain of the validity but the month-by-month numbers seem to bear it out. I think he’s also had a difficult time adjusting to pro ball out of high school, so when you take that into consideration he’s not been that bad.
9. Lance Lynn-Here is my first little surprise, I guess Keith Law sold me on his potential to be a solid mid-rotation innings eater, and Chris O’Leary sold me on his durability, which I think is an underrated trait.
10. Jon Jay-I think Jay has the potential to be Coco Crisp in his 2004-2005 Cleveland Indians heyday when he was batting near .300, slugging nearly .450 and hitting double digits in the steals column while playing a solid OF. The key word is potential, I’m not saying I’d stake the farm on it. His Peak Translation currently is .288/.355/.457.
11. Mitchell Boggs-Three OKish starts, one great start and one horrific start doesn’t seem to justify sending him down. Yes, he wasn’t missing any bats, other than Royals bats but I think he is still potentialy a solid back-end starter and I’m ingtrigued at what he could possibly do in relief.
12. Adam Ottavino-I am giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt. His last few stars he’s showing signs of improvement, especially in his last outing. Hopefully he’s finally coming around.
13. Joe Mather-I can’t figure him out. He hits like he could be at least a solid average big league corner OF in double A last year and now in triple A. But my gut says he’s more of a platoon/4th OF guy.
14. Tyler Herron-I really think it was a mistake pushing him up to AA so quickly. He’s been pretty bleh but he’s only 21 and still has three average pitches and good command, so here he is.
15. Nico Vasquez-Jason Motte really probably belongs here, I admit it. But as one of the charter members on the Nico bandwagon I’ll stick him here. Quick Kozma versus Nico Smackdown: Hitting for average: Given Nico’s K’s and Kozma’s contact rate, I’d say advantage Kozma. Hitting for power: Advantage Nico, by a mile. Plate discipline: Kozma. Speed: Kozma, easily. Range: Kozma, again, rather handily but Vasquez is no slouch despite his size. Throwing arm: Kozma, but a little closer. In a perfect world, Kozma will be playing along side Vasquez in the infield by 2011, with Kozma batting 2nd or 9th (assuming LaRussa doesn’t retire), and Vasquez batting 6th.

Update: Perez has been in the majors for over 40 games, so I didn’t include him on the list. If I were to include Perez, I would put him at #2, maybe even #3 after Wallace.